Robusta Coffee Price Surge Driven by Brazilian Currency Rally and Supply Tightness

Robusta coffee price movements on Tuesday reflected broader market dynamics shaping the global coffee complex. March arabica coffee futures closed up 11.00 cents (+3.09%), while March ICE robusta coffee futures surged +78 points (+1.86%), marking a sharp two-week high for arabica. The rally underscores how currency strength, export constraints, and inventory shifts are reshaping coffee markets in early 2026.

Brazilian Real Strength Curbs Export Supply

The Brazilian real’s appreciation to a 20-month high stands as the primary catalyst behind the current robusta coffee price momentum. When Brazil’s currency strengthens against the U.S. dollar, coffee exports become less attractive to international buyers—a critical dynamic since Brazil remains the world’s largest arabica producer. Recent data from Cecafe revealed that Brazil’s green coffee exports in December contracted sharply, with total shipments declining 18.4% to 2.86 million bags. Arabica exports specifically fell 10% year-over-year to 2.6 million bags, while robusta shipments plummeted 61% to just 222,147 bags.

This export contraction directly supports robusta coffee price levels by tightening near-term supply. Fewer Brazilian exports mean less downward pressure on global prices, as producers prioritize higher-margin opportunities domestically or delay sales awaiting more favorable currency conditions.

Weather Pressures Arabica Output in Brazil’s Key Growing Regions

Below-average rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s most critical arabica-growing area, provides additional upside support to both arabica and robusta coffee price dynamics. During the week ending mid-January, the region received only 33.9 millimeters of rain—approximately 53% of the historical average according to Somar Meteorologia. Drier conditions raise concerns about yield and production quality, a factor that typically underpins futures pricing.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab raised its 2025 total coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags in its December report, suggesting the year-end production remains robust despite weather concerns. This mixed signal—weather headwinds offset by solid crop estimates—creates price stability in the near term.

Competing Dynamics in Robusta Coffee Markets

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, has emerged as a key price driver through robust export activity. The nation’s robusta coffee price environment faces headwinds from Vietnam’s surging export volumes: 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons according to the Vietnam National Statistics Office. More significantly, Vietnam’s 2025/26 production is projected to climb 6% year-over-year to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), potentially marking a four-year high.

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association projected in October that 2025/26 output could climb 10% higher than the prior crop year if weather conditions cooperate. This abundance of Vietnamese robusta supply creates a structural ceiling on robusta coffee price appreciation, even as Brazilian constraints provide temporary support.

Inventory Dynamics Reveal Conflicting Signals

ICE arabica and robusta inventories tell a cautionary tale. Arabica stocks, which had plummeted to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, rebounded to 461,829 bags by mid-January—a 2.5-month high. Similarly, robusta coffee inventories fell to a 1-year low of 4,012 lots in early December but climbed to 4,609 lots by late January. These inventory recoveries suggest that while prices have rallied, exchange-monitored supplies are not experiencing the extreme tightness that would support a sustained bull market.

Global Production Outlook and Long-Term Price Trajectory

The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service painted a nuanced picture in its December report on global coffee supply. World coffee production in 2025/26 is projected to increase 2.0% year-over-year to a record 178.848 million bags. However, this aggregate masks significant regional divergence: arabica production is forecast to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta production climbs 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Brazil specifically faces a production headwind, with FAS forecasting a 3.1% year-over-year decline to 63 million bags, while Vietnam’s output is projected to surge 6.2% year-over-year to a four-year high of 30.8 million bags. These shifts underscore how robusta coffee price support may prove temporary once Vietnamese supplies fully enter the market.

On the positive side, the International Coffee Organization reported in November that global coffee exports for the current marketing year contracted 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags, signaling tighter near-term availability. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are forecast by FAS to decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in the prior year, suggesting that while ample supplies lie ahead, the transition period may sustain price support for robusta coffee price momentum into spring 2026.

The interplay between Brazilian currency headwinds, Vietnamese abundance, and temporary inventory tightness creates a dynamic environment where robusta coffee price trajectories will likely hinge on broader currency movements and weather developments through the planting and growing seasons ahead.