Ryan Cohen's $35 Billion Bet: Can GameStop Stock Make the Jump?

GameStop’s board just unveiled an audacious bet on CEO Ryan Cohen. The incentive plan is simple in concept but staggering in scale: if Ryan Cohen can transform the struggling retailer into a powerhouse with $10 billion in annual EBITDA and a $100 billion market cap, his stock options could be worth more than $35 billion. The question now ripples through the investment community: Is this the carrot that finally turns GameStop into a real growth story, or an unrealistic fantasy?

The Massive Incentive Plan Behind Ryan Cohen’s Leadership

Under the performance award structure, Ryan Cohen receives no guaranteed salary, cash bonuses, or time-vesting stock. Instead, his entire compensation hinges on hitting specific financial milestones. The company is granting him options to purchase over 171.5 million shares at $20.66 per share—representing a potential $3.5 billion in notional value at the exercise price alone.

The targets are ambitious. The first tranche (10% of the award) vests when GameStop reaches a $20 billion market cap and $2 billion in EBITDA. The full $35 billion payout requires GameStop to achieve both a $100 billion market cap and $10 billion in EBITDA. This structure mirrors Tesla’s controversial approach with Elon Musk, though on different scales and timelines. Shareholders must approve this plan at a special meeting scheduled for March or April 2026.

Ryan Cohen already owns over 9% of GameStop’s outstanding shares, meaning he has significant skin in the game beyond just the incentive package. He took the helm in late 2023 and has already begun reshaping the company’s operations and strategic focus.

A Tale of Two Directions: Business Performance Under Ryan Cohen

Since Ryan Cohen’s arrival, GameStop has made tangible operational improvements, though progress remains uneven across business lines. The company’s collectibles division is thriving, now representing nearly 28% of total revenue through the first three quarters of 2025—a substantial jump driven by growing consumer interest in gaming memorabilia and collectible items.

However, the business presents a mixed picture. The software division (new and pre-owned video games) continues its decline—a troubling sign given GameStop’s historical reliance on this segment. The hardware business (gaming consoles and equipment), while still contracting, shows signs of stabilization compared to prior years. Together, software and hardware still account for over 70% of total revenue, making their weakness a critical concern.

The bright spot: GameStop generated approximately $136 million in EBITDA during the first 10 months of 2025. Operating cash flow and earnings have improved materially compared to prior years, validating Ryan Cohen’s operational adjustments. Yet as of early February 2026, GameStop’s market cap stands at approximately $4.4 billion—still a massive distance from the $100 billion target embedded in Ryan Cohen’s incentive plan.

Closing the Gap: What It Takes for Ryan Cohen to Hit Targets

The math is sobering. GameStop would need its market cap to increase roughly 22 times from current levels while simultaneously growing EBITDA more than 70-fold. For context, the company currently trades at approximately 27 times its 2025 annualized earnings—a multiple that already prices in significant optimism for a retailer still bleeding revenue in two of its three main businesses.

Transforming this trajectory would require GameStop to not merely stabilize its software and hardware segments but to grow them meaningfully while expanding its collectibles and potential new revenue streams. The gaming retail landscape is crowded and digital distribution continues eroding traditional physical sales channels.

Ryan Cohen’s capabilities as a CEO are evident—he has proven his business acumen at other ventures. And his massive financial incentive creates genuine alignment with shareholder interests. Yet historical precedent suggests that such enormous performance thresholds are typically set with only modest probability of full achievement.

The Real Question for Investors

The real calculus for investors isn’t whether Ryan Cohen is motivated—he clearly is. The question is whether GameStop’s underlying business can support a 22x market cap expansion and 70x EBITDA growth in a reasonable timeframe. The company’s structural challenges in core segments, though partially offset by emerging collectibles momentum, suggest the odds remain daunting.

GameStop will perpetually carry some “meme magic” that creates price volatility disconnected from fundamentals. But from a traditional valuation and business quality perspective, the 27x earnings multiple already reflects optimistic expectations. Investors considering entry should weigh whether Ryan Cohen’s tenure to date suggests a fundamental business turnaround is genuinely underway, or whether the latest incentive plan simply represents higher stakes in an ongoing restructuring story. The shareholder vote in spring 2026 will be telling.