#BuyTheDipOrWaitNow?

The Trump Doctrine and the "One Big Beautiful Bill" Effect
On the U.S. front, the massive tax rebates and stimulus package (OBBBA) launched by the Trump administration in January have injected fresh blood into the markets. As investors, we are closely watching how this liquidity will trigger household spending and how it will translate into corporate earnings. However, on the flip side, speculations regarding the Federal Reserve’s independence and the upcoming selection of Jerome Powell’s successor in May are creating significant market volatility. The possibility of a "hawkish" candidate disrupting market expectations could potentially dampen the current "bullish" appetite.
2. Artificial Intelligence: The Shift from "Experiment to Operation"
We are no longer just asking "What will AI do?"; as of 2026, we are seeing tangible evidence of how AI is driving down costs and increasing productivity on corporate balance sheets. Massive infrastructure investments by tech giants keep the "bubble vs. new normal" debate alive. Major headlines, such as SpaceX’s valuation surpassing $600 billion, serve as the strongest proof that the private space economy has officially become a mainstream investment frontier.
3. The Era of "Divergence" in Global Monetary Policies
The hidden force currently driving the markets is the profound misalignment between central banks. While the Fed and the European Central Bank maintain a "wait-and-see" approach regarding rate cuts, surprise rate hikes from countries like Australia are causing global liquidity to shift direction. Specifically, with the U.S. dollar retreating to its lowest levels in four years, we are observing a significant capital flow into emerging markets (EM), including Türkiye. Borsa Istanbul’s double-digit gains in dollar terms during January are a direct reflection of this shifting risk appetite.
Noteworthy Observations
Energy and Geopolitics: Trump’s suggestions that India source oil from Venezuela rather than Iran signal a new redistribution of cards within energy corridors.
Commodity Wars: The struggle for dominance over rare earth elements could push up cost margins for semiconductor and electric vehicle manufacturers at any moment.
The New Face of Inflation: As the "front-loading" effect in global supply chains (stockpiling due to tariff fears) fades, the trajectory of inflation in the second half of 2026 will determine the market's ultimate direction.
Currently, markets are both enjoying these massive incentives and displaying a sense of "cautious optimism" under the shadow of upcoming political shifts and geopolitical tensions.
Would you like me to adapt this translation into a more formal executive summary or perhaps a more casual social media thread format?