Does the Samuel Benner Chart Still Work? Testing a 150-Year-Old Market Theory in 2026

We’re now over a month into 2026, and the market landscape looks quite different from what many Benner Cycle proponents predicted. As of early 2026, the anticipated market peak that was supposed to materialize around mid-2025 and extend into 2026 hasn’t unfolded as the theory suggested. This growing disconnect between historical chart predictions and current market realities has sparked renewed debate among retail crypto investors about the validity of this centuries-old forecasting tool.

The samuel benner chart, originally created in 1875, emerged from one farmer’s personal tragedy and observations. Samuel Benner himself experienced devastating losses during the 1873 financial crisis. Rather than abandoning the markets, he spent years analyzing price cycles and published his findings in “Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices.” Unlike today’s complex quantitative models, Benner’s methodology was rooted in agricultural commodity patterns. He believed solar activity influenced crop yields, which in turn affected commodity prices—and ultimately, broader market cycles.

The Theory Behind the Chart: Three Simple Lines

Benner’s framework divided market cycles into three categories based on his observations:

• Line A identified panic years, historically marked by market crashes
• Line B marked boom years, traditionally viewed as optimal selling opportunities
• Line C highlighted recession years, considered ideal for accumulation

The samuel benner chart mapped these cycles extending to 2059, though critics noted that agricultural markets have transformed dramatically since Benner’s era. According to historical records cited by Wealth Management Canada, the cycle’s broad strokes did align with major financial events—the Great Depression (1929), the Dot-Com bubble, and the COVID-19 market crash—though often with deviations of several years.

2023, 2026, and the Prediction Reality Check

In recent years, the theory gained traction through social media and crypto communities. Influential analysts like Panos noted that the chart had successfully anticipated multiple market events, and proposed that 2023 represented the best buying opportunity in years, while 2026 would mark the market’s next significant peak. This outlook fueled optimism, particularly among retail crypto traders who widely shared the chart to support bullish narratives for 2025-2026.

However, as 2026 progresses, the theory’s accuracy is being questioned. While markets did recover from their 2024-2025 downturns, a dramatic market peak aligned with the historical pattern hasn’t materialized as predicted. The samuel benner chart’s framework, designed for agricultural cycles in the 19th century, may be struggling to account for modern monetary policy, geopolitical shocks, and algorithmic trading.

The Skeptics Speak Out

Notable trader Peter Brandt publicly criticized over-reliance on the chart in early 2025, stating that such long-term historical patterns distract from actionable trading signals. “I need to deal with only the trades I enter and exit,” Brandt argued, suggesting that applying 150-year-old frameworks to today’s market mechanics is questionable.

Adding pressure to bearish narratives, major financial institutions revised their forecasts. JPMorgan raised its 12-month recession probability, while Goldman Sachs increased its own recession estimates—figures that contradicted the Benner Cycle’s bullish 2025-2026 outlook.

Why the Chart Still Captivates Investors

Despite mounting evidence challenging its accuracy, belief in the samuel benner chart persists. Some investors argue that historical charts like Benner’s work not because they’re scientifically precise, but because collective market psychology creates self-fulfilling prophecies. If enough participants believe a peak is coming, their trading behavior may indeed trigger one.

As search interest in “Benner Cycle” spiked in late 2025 and early 2026—according to Google Trends data—it reflected ongoing demand for optimistic frameworks amid economic uncertainty. The chart’s longevity suggests that humans remain attracted to patterns and historical precedent, even when modern markets operate under fundamentally different conditions.

The real lesson may be this: while the samuel benner chart offers an intriguing historical perspective, it’s best viewed as one data point among many rather than a reliable stand-alone forecasting tool for contemporary crypto and equity markets.