It has been a few days since Trump nominated Kevin Wirth as the next Federal Reserve Chair, and we have already seen the impact of this event on asset markets. Individual stocks have hit new lows, commodity markets have cooled down, and cryptocurrencies continue to follow their macro trends. There are two reasons for this: first, regardless of who is nominated, the announcement of the nomination tends to trigger selling, because the pricing of the nomination was already reflected weeks ago, turning this event into a "sell the news" scenario.

Second, as explained in the last update, the market has been pricing in Kevin Hasset's nomination and expects significant rate cuts starting in November, which has caused the dollar to be overly re-priced back to the macro range lows. With Wirth's nomination, this possibility diminishes because he is more balanced and data-driven. Additionally, recent macroeconomic data has shown that the labor market is recovering, but inflation risks remain high due to substantial investments in artificial intelligence, tariffs, and growth in U.S. manufacturing.
This reduces the likelihood of an aggressive easing cycle this year and supports the dollar, which has already shown signs of a macro reversal. These inflation risks have led to a hawkish outlook for the Fed in 2026, but the market is only now beginning to react to this. Later this week, we will see some important macroeconomic events, including the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls(NFP), which will provide new data on the labor market. As usual, strong labor market data will reduce expectations for further rate cuts this year, and vice versa#加密市场隔夜V型震荡