Trump Must Die! Only Then Will the Crypto Market Truly Mature

If he suddenly passes away, it’s not just a matter of “how much it drops in a day.” More importantly, the crypto-friendly policy framework that the US has painstakingly built over the past year could instantly lose its core driving force. As the top political spokesperson for the current crypto industry, his unexpected departure ultimately means that the long-term fate of the crypto market depends on fundamental industry factors and the broader global compliance trend, not on a single individual.

In the short term, the market will definitely react with “panic.”

The sudden loss of policy certainty will lead to immediate risk aversion. Mainstream coins like BTC and ETH could drop by around ten to twenty percent in a short period; high-leverage contract markets will be especially vulnerable to chain reactions of liquidations. Meme coins and related NFTs that are deeply tied to him will lose their personal halo and are likely to be sold off en masse. The grand vision he has been promoting—“allowing retirement funds (401k) to invest in Bitcoin”—may also be put on hold, with institutional funds adopting a wait-and-see approach. But this decline is fundamentally driven by capital’s fear of policy vacuum, not a collapse in the underlying value of cryptocurrencies. Already approved spot ETFs will still see long-term capital inflows gradually, as the foundation remains unchanged.

The biggest medium-term problem is the “gap” in policy and the “relocation” of capital.

The initiatives he championed in office—how exactly the “Genius Act” will be implemented, whether the US will establish a Bitcoin reserve, how the SEC and CFTC will divide regulatory authority—these plans that could truly change the US crypto game are likely to stall entirely. The US may revert to the old pattern of “unclear regulation but strict enforcement,” with the SEC probably re-engaging with major platforms for “discussions.”

The over $200 million in political donations the crypto industry and Republicans have given him will suddenly lose their core purpose, requiring a re-bet. Market expectations for future policies will be chaotic for a long time.

America’s plan to become the “global crypto capital” has essentially failed, which will accelerate the flow of global crypto capital to places like Singapore and Hong Kong, where policies are clearer and more friendly. The US’s influence in this field will be significantly weakened, and the entire industry may go through a period of contraction with “less money.”

In the long run, the crypto market will inevitably return to its fundamentals.

The scarcity created by Bitcoin halving, the continuous institutional funding driven by ETFs, and the irreversible trend of global asset digitization—these are the real determinants of the industry’s future. Over 50 million Americans already hold cryptocurrencies, so a full crackdown is simply not feasible.

The “policy vacuum” that might emerge this time will instead push the US to shift crypto regulation from “relying on presidential support” to a more stable, institutionalized framework. This is actually an essential step toward industry maturity: when its development no longer depends on the preferences of a single politician but is built on technological innovation, compliant operations, and clear rules, it can truly withstand sudden political risks.

Politicians are just short-term variables in the crypto market.

If Trump suddenly passes away, it will undoubtedly amplify short-term uncertainty and trigger volatility, but it cannot change the overall trend of crypto assets moving toward digitalization and globalization. This hypothetical crisis is both a test of the market’s resilience and a potential opportunity for the crypto industry to shed “policy dependence” and achieve genuine maturity.