William Blair Sets Bullish Tone for MP Materials with Outperform Rating

On January 13, 2026, William Blair initiated coverage of MP Materials (NYSE: MP) with an Outperform recommendation, signaling strong confidence in the rare-earth materials company’s growth prospects. This analyst endorsement arrives at a critical juncture as institutional investors are actively repositioning their stakes in the stock. The move reflects growing recognition that MP Materials—a key player in the domestic rare-earth supply chain—is poised for significant expansion ahead.

Forecasting Substantial Upside: What’s the Price Target?

The average one-year price target for MP stands at $80.05 per share as of December 21, 2025, suggesting a potential 22.51% upside from the latest closing price of $65.34. William Blair’s bullish stance aligns with a broader analyst consensus, with price forecasts ranging from a conservative $69.37 to an optimistic $98.70. This wide range reflects varying perspectives on MP’s execution capability and market tailwinds.

The company is projected to report annual revenues of $1,490 million, representing a dramatic 540.19% increase year-over-year. Non-GAAP EPS is forecasted at $2.25, underscoring the operational leverage embedded in this growth story. These metrics explain why William Blair and other analysts are becoming increasingly bullish on the stock.

Institutional Appetite Remains Strong Despite Market Hesitation

Fund and institutional positioning reveals a complex picture. While the number of institutional holders rose to 1,001 (up 153 positions or 18.04% in the last quarter), total institutional share count actually declined 7.83% to 147.85 million shares. This suggests portfolio repositioning rather than across-the-board accumulation. The put/call ratio of 1.03 indicates a slightly bearish near-term sentiment among options traders, yet this contrasts sharply with the underlying fundamental support from major institutional players.

Average portfolio allocation to MP across all funds stands at 0.26%, up 0.67% from the prior period, indicating growing conviction despite the mixed options market signal.

Major Players Doubling Down: The Biggest Institutional Movers

Several heavyweight investors are making aggressive moves in MP Materials, revealing strong conviction behind the stock’s upside potential:

Hancock Prospecting boosted its stake from 13.86 million to 14.86 million shares (representing 8.39% ownership), an increase of 6.73%. More impressively, the firm increased its portfolio allocation to MP by a massive 121.29% over the quarter, signaling maximum conviction.

Price T. Rowe Associates made the most dramatic move, surging from 624K to 3.47 million shares (1.96% ownership)—an 81.99% jump. The firm’s portfolio weight allocation soared by 957.33% over the quarter, among the largest shifts by any institutional investor tracked.

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) added modestly to its position, rising from 4.13 million to 4.21 million shares (2.37% ownership), with a 23.96% increase in portfolio allocation weight.

The iShares Small-Cap ETF (IJR) trimmed its position slightly from 7.46 million to 7.20 million shares but still increased its portfolio weight allocation by 30.44%, suggesting selective rebalancing rather than reduced confidence.

The SPDR Metals & Mining ETF (XME) added 515,000 shares (increasing from 2.86 million to 3.38 million) and boosted its sector allocation weight by 33.01%.

The Takeaway

William Blair’s initiation of coverage with an Outperform rating provides fresh institutional validation for MP Materials’ growth narrative. Combined with the aggressive accumulation by sophisticated investors like Hancock Prospecting and T. Rowe Price, the fundamental backdrop appears increasingly supportive despite near-term options market caution.