Monetary Easing Signals Early Stages of Crypto Bull Run in 2026

As we move deeper into 2026, a significant shift in global financial conditions is beginning to reshape the crypto market landscape. Macro researcher Jesse Eckel identifies central bank easing and expanding liquidity as the primary catalysts that could propel the next major crypto bull run. Unlike previous market cycles heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s technical calendar, today’s price action appears increasingly tied to macroeconomic fundamentals and monetary policy decisions.

The transition from tight monetary conditions toward financial easing marks a critical juncture for risk assets. After years of aggressive rate increases starting in 2022, central banks have begun to pivot toward rate cuts and balance sheet expansion. This fundamental shift in the global financial environment could set the stage for sustained gains across crypto markets throughout the year and beyond.

Why Macro Trends Now Drive Crypto Bull Run Potential Over Halving Cycles

Bitcoin’s historic four-year cycle and halving events have long been considered primary market drivers. However, recent analysis suggests this model may no longer accurately predict rallies. Eckel argues that previous crypto rallies stemmed fundamentally from liquidity expansion rather than halving events themselves.

“Halvings alone never caused rallies. Liquidity did,” the researcher noted in his macro update. Historical evidence supports this view—major gains in 2013, 2017, and the post-COVID surge of 2021 all coincided with periods of monetary accommodation and aggressive central bank support. In contrast, 2022’s sharp monetary tightening cycle created significant headwinds for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The 2024 halving, by contrast, failed to immediately spark the rally many participants anticipated. Instead, markets remained range-bound throughout 2025 as central banks maintained higher rates longer than initially expected. Today’s environment looks fundamentally different. With rate hikes now concluded and policy shifting toward accommodation, the conditions that historically preceded crypto bull runs are reemerging.

This recognition marks a paradigm shift in how market participants should evaluate crypto asset potential. Following liquidity flows and macroeconomic indicators now appears more predictive than monitoring blockchain calendar events. “Crypto bull run strength will follow money, not the calendar,” Eckel emphasized.

Liquidity Expansion and Rate Cuts: The Real Catalysts for Altcoin Surges

The transformation in monetary policy has already begun signaling changes across financial markets. Central banks have paused their interest-rate hiking campaigns after what many observers called the fastest tightening cycle in recent decades. With borrowing costs stabilizing and expectations for rate reductions building, the cost of capital for risk-taking is declining.

This environment historically favors altcoins more than established assets. As financial conditions ease and capital becomes more abundant, investors typically rotate toward higher-yield, higher-volatility opportunities. Eckel identifies this period as potentially fertile ground for an altcoin-focused crypto bull run.

Economic data has also shown signs of stabilization after quarters of weakness. Business activity, which remained subdued through much of 2025, is beginning to show modest improvement. As growth prospects brighten and central banks face mounting pressure to support economic expansion, the incentive structure shifts decisively toward monetary support.

Previous major crypto rallies followed periods when central banks actively expanded their balance sheets and maintained accommodative conditions. The current trajectory suggests similar conditions may emerge over the coming quarters. With early 2026 showing initial signs of easing financial conditions, the groundwork for a sustained crypto bull run is gradually forming.

From Recovery Phase to Bull Run: Market Positioning in Early 2026

The current market environment reflects an early recovery phase rather than the explosive breakout that characterizes mature bull markets. While some investors expected immediate gains following the 2024 halving, the market has instead undergone a gradual healing process throughout 2025. This consolidation phase—though frustrating for momentum traders—may ultimately strengthen the foundation for a more durable rally.

Eckel suggests that 2025’s modest gains and sideways movement served as necessary groundwork. The real expansion phase for a major crypto bull run could materialize as 2026 progresses, particularly if monetary conditions continue their current easing trajectory. “2025 may see some lift, but 2026 looks more explosive,” he predicted months ago—a forecast that now appears to be entering its critical testing phase.

Several factors must align for this scenario to unfold. Sustained liquidity growth, improving business cycle indicators, and central bank commitment to accommodative policy all play essential roles. Additionally, crypto market participants must shift their focus from calendar-based expectations toward macroeconomic realities.

Patience remains crucial as these conditions continue to develop. The system is currently transitioning between regimes, with stronger catalysts likely to crystallize over the next several quarters. However, the groundwork for the next major crypto bull run is visibly forming. As liquidity expands, borrowing costs remain accessible, and business growth stabilizes, the probability of sustained upside movement increases substantially. For market participants positioned accordingly, the early 2026 period may ultimately be remembered as the moment when conditions finally aligned for the next major cycle.