Changpeng Zhao predicts: Bitcoin will break the four-year pattern this year

In his recent speech at the World Economic Forum in Chengpeng, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao expressed confidence that Bitcoin will break out of its traditional four-year cycle this year. Against the backdrop of the rapid increase in digital asset values (BTC is currently trading near a new all-time high of $126.08K), his forecast gains additional weight in the context of the evolution of the crypto market.

This position of Changpeng Zhao significantly differs from the conservative forecasts of many analysts who expect Bitcoin to continue following the historical correction pattern after approximately four years of active growth. Instead, he points to a fundamental change in the external environment as the main factor that could reshape the familiar market cycles.

Supercycle Instead of the Traditional Four-Year Pattern

Changpeng Zhao expressed a “very strong feeling” that the market is entering a supercycle — a phenomenon characterized by more aggressive growth and longer bullish phases. Traditionally, Bitcoin followed predictable cycles depending on halving events, which occur approximately every four years. However, Binance’s co-founder asserts that current geopolitical and political conditions create a unique convergence of factors capable of disrupting this long-standing pattern.

His optimism is based on the observation that the United States and increasingly more countries around the world are adopting pro-cryptocurrency positions, creating an institutionally favorable environment for digital assets. This shift in political stance, in his view, serves as a powerful catalyst for increasing demand and inflows of capital into the crypto market.

Warnings from other market players, including Ark Invest CEO, who forecast much higher targets (from $300,000 to $1.5 million by 2030), support the overall optimistic tone regarding Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.

Pro-Crypto Policy as a Driver of Market Transformation

Changpeng Zhao links his optimistic scenario to a significant evolution in the global political stance toward cryptocurrencies. In his words, the US has not only normalized its attitude toward digital assets but also actively demonstrates support, which other countries are consistently adopting. This international consensus on pro-cryptocurrency regulation differs markedly from previous years when digital assets faced uncertainty and skepticism.

Institutionalization of the crypto market through the adaptation of government policies is seen as a phenomenon that “benefits both the crypto industry and America itself.” This pragmatic approach to regulation creates more sustainable conditions for sector development, opening new opportunities for investment and innovation.

Advising Governments and Personal Investments of Changpeng Zhao

Beyond his market forecasts, Changpeng Zhao remains actively involved in developing cryptocurrency policies at the global level. He advises around a dozen governments on regulation of cryptocurrencies, asset tokenization, and the implementation of stablecoins. His role in shaping the policy landscape demonstrates the industry’s deep involvement in establishing new rules of the game.

Changpeng Zhao’s personal projects extend beyond Binance. He is developing a free educational platform, Giggle Academy, collaborating with investment firm Easy Labs, and mentoring several founders within the BNB Chain ecosystem. These initiatives highlight his long-term vision of the crypto industry as a comprehensive ecosystem rather than just a trading platform.

This multifaceted approach by Changpeng Zhao reflects the transformation of the crypto sector from a speculative market to an institutionalized industry with its own educational, regulatory, and investment infrastructure.