The three bearish factors this week have all materialized, and now only the shutdown remains. Based on current information, a government shutdown in the US next Monday is highly likely. However, this shutdown is expected to be brief, as the Senate is working on an agreement that includes a short-term continuing resolution and multiple full-year appropriations bills. The House is currently in recess until Monday afternoon( Beijing time, and will only return and vote then. Therefore, it is very likely that the government will still be in a shutdown on Monday morning, but it could end in the afternoon or later that day, depending on the progress of the House vote. Currently, the general consensus on Kalshi is that the shutdown may last about 1-2 days. As a result, this shutdown is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market, and even if it occurs, not all departments will be affected. A pullback to around 2555-2511 can be considered for long entries, with a rebound target around 2700-2780.