#中东局势升级 Gold and Bitcoin, who is the king of hedging?

In today's intertwined landscape of inflation and geopolitical risks, "how to choose safe-haven assets" has become a hot topic in every street corner. Gold, as the "elder brother" with a thousand-year history, sits firmly on the traditional throne of safe-haven assets; Bitcoin, the "new digital contender," is charging forward under the banner of "decentralization." But who is truly the king of hedging?

Inflation Hedge: Is Gold a "Hard Currency" or Is Bitcoin Still a "Test Subject"?
When it comes to fighting inflation, gold is a seasoned veteran with 20 years of practical experience. Over the past two decades, no matter how soaring prices have been, gold has consistently outperformed inflation, like a "lifetime insurance" for your wallet—you might see your savings depreciate, but the gold in your hand can always be exchanged for real silver and gold. This stability stems from its natural scarcity and global consensus; from ancient emperors to modern central banks, no one questions gold's value. In contrast, Bitcoin, despite its title as "digital gold," has shown rollercoaster performance. Its maximum drawdown in 2022 exceeded 65%, meaning if you invested 100 units, you’d be left with only 35—this isn’t hedging against inflation, but rather "against wealth."

Volatility: One Like an "ECG," the Other Like a "Helicopter"
Gold’s annualized volatility is about 15%, roughly half of the CSI 300 index, with a steady trend like a boat on a calm lake. Even during market tremors, its price fluctuations won’t wake you up at midnight, making it suitable for conservative investors seeking "peaceful years." For example, if you bought gold 20 years ago and held onto it, you probably wouldn’t be checking the market daily, as it follows a "slow bull" trajectory. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has an annualized volatility easily surpassing 80%, earning it the nickname "the dance floor star of finance." Its price can be sky-high one second and plunge into the depths the next. By March 2025, its volatility has decreased to below 58%, but it’s still more than three times that of gold—like riding a helicopter sightseeing, the scenery is spectacular, but your heart needs to be strong. Want to use Bitcoin as a hedging tool? Unless you develop a "mountain-shaking" calmness, it’s a tough call.

Liquidity: One is a "Global Pass," the Other a "Local Food Coupon"
How strong is gold’s liquidity? Let’s put it this way: if you go to the vegetable market to buy a bunch of scallions, the shopkeeper recognizes gold. Central banks, jewelers, investors are always ready to buy, and cashing out is as quick as scanning a QR code. Even during economic crises, gold can be quickly converted into cash for emergencies—truly a "hard currency." Bitcoin’s liquidity, however, is a bit awkward. Although blockchain technology makes transfers convenient, large-scale selling can teach you a lesson—exchange outages and slippage are common, making it look like a "paper millionaire." Watching the excitement, but cashing out depends on luck.

Geopolitics: Gold is the "Favorite in Turbulent Times," Bitcoin is the "Schrödinger’s Asset"
Whenever international tensions rise, gold is the first to surge, with a simple and straightforward logic: war breaks out, paper money may become worthless, but gold remains the hard truth. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict (and similar international conflicts), gold prices soared, and central banks frantically bought up gold—this is the power of a thousand-year reputation. Bitcoin’s performance in geopolitical crises, however, is like a "riddle." Some believe it can bypass government regulation and serve as a "digital safe haven"; others worry that regulatory hammer blows will cut its price in half. In 2022, the Fed’s rate hikes caused Bitcoin to crash along with the US stock market, instantly breaking the myth of "uncorrelatedness." Frankly, Bitcoin has yet to prove it can stand alone in the chaos of war.

Conclusion: Gold is the "Ballast," Bitcoin is the "Lottery"
Overall, gold remains the "cornerstone" of modern investment portfolios. Its stability, liquidity, and historical backing determine its irreplaceable role during economic turbulence. As for Bitcoin, it’s more suitable for those with strong risk tolerance and seeking high returns—using it as an "alternative investment" is fine, but relying on it to lead the charge in hedging might require a few more years of cultivation.