Government debts, then stocks, and finally oil - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, the future

# Government debts, then stocks, and finally oil

By 2025, the RWA sector shifted from conceptual discussions to an aggressive phase of integration into traditional markets. The main focus moved from simple debt instruments to energy resources and critical infrastructure.

In a new ForkLog article, the market architecture of commodities is analyzed, key startup cases are examined, and the risks of the upcoming financial reality are assessed.

Evolution of Tokenization

At the end of 2025, BlackRock managers Larry Fink and Rob Goldstein described the intersection of traditional institutions and digital innovations as building a bridge from different riverbanks:

“These two sides are not so much competing as learning to interact. In the future, people will not hold stocks and bonds in one portfolio, and cryptocurrencies in another. Assets of all kinds will one day be bought, sold, and stored in a single digital wallet.”

As a result of last year, the RWA sector became the most profitable in the crypto market. Success, supported by predictions of a bright future for real-world asset tokenization and a rather bleak situation across the entire blockchain industry, has made this direction literally the only hope for investors.

In October, Standard Chartered analysts estimated the RWA segment’s capitalization at $2 trillion by 2028. In December, Grayscale predicted a 1000-fold growth of the niche over the next four years.

ARK Invest joined the trend and believes that tokenization could add up to 50,000% in the next five years.

According to RWA.xyz, on January 22, 2026, the sector’s value excluding stablecoins surpassed $22 billion. The leading segment of tokenized assets was US debt obligations worth $9.5 billion.

Source: RWA.xyz. While initially driven by US Treasury bonds, now startups are digitizing collective ownership of loans to private corporations and real estate.

The 2025 boom was marked by trading shares of public companies on “crypto rails.” Many major CEX and DEX platforms offered this opportunity. Additionally, Telegram users gained the ability to buy securities from the TradFi market directly within the app.

The next development vector for RWA is forming around commodity goods. At the time of writing, the market capitalization of this subcategory was $4.8 billion, with over 80% accounted for by Tether Gold (XAUT) and Paxos Gold (PAXG).

Although pioneers like Tether have been involved in gold, silver, and other precious metals tokenization for over five years, oil was not part of their focus. Discussions about digital rights to this asset only began about two years ago.

As regulatory clarity develops and the push for total tokenization continues, the oil, gas, and critical resource markets for the AI economy may join RWA and even lead the trend in the near future.

Banner about upcoming addition of data on tokenized oil and gas products. Source: RWA.xyz.## Subsurface Economy

Tokenization of subsurface assets is an emerging trend in the shadow of broader RWA, currently not backed by figures in reports but already “charged” by pioneering companies. Early experiments with commodity products proved the viability of technology capable of instantly consolidating liquidity into capital-intensive industries, bypassing banks that cannot meet the needs of the accelerating AI economy.

The tokenized commodities market has undergone a natural selection process. The early Solana startup Elmnts, offering profit-sharing from oil extraction, has now been moved to withdrawal mode. Its social media activity ceased four months after the public beta launch in October 2024.

Projects that lost momentum for various reasons have been replaced by players supported by institutional backing and improved business models. Additionally, under the current regulatory environment, protected by advanced US, EU, and UAE laws, organizations can obtain tangible legal boundaries that early pioneers lacked.

Hadron, issued by USDT — Tether, offers “turnkey” tokenization using institutional-grade verification technology and a wide range of sectors, including commodities.

A UAE-based company, Tharwa (TRWA), operates within the Abu Dhabi financial jurisdiction. The project targets Middle Eastern markets and tokenizes gold, real estate, and stakes in the oil industry. Integration with the decentralized protocol Pendle allows investors to split and trade separately the underlying asset (Principal Token, PT) and expected yield (Yield Token, YT), providing access to Sharia-compliant finance without Riba elements.

Source: Tharwa. Another RWA startup, Mineral Vault (MNRL), which chose the specialized blockchain Plume Network, offers built-in compliance mechanisms at the protocol level.

The team is working on tokenizing royalties from over 2,500 active oil and gas wells in the US owned by Allegiance Oil & Gas. In fact, the owner of Mineral Vault I tokens owns a stake in mineral rights valued at $10 million.

Mineral rights are a separate form of property rights on subsurface resources, granting the owner rights to extract oil, gas, and other resources from a plot, independent of surface rights.

Mineral rights can be leased to US energy companies that extract resources in exchange for royalties paid to the rights holder. This structure allows owners to receive passive income, inflation protection, and long-term appreciation, with minimal costs or risks related to drilling or well maintenance.

Source: Mineral Vault. The legal structure built through remote, bankruptcy-remote special purpose companies guarantees investors payments in USDC stablecoin. The targeted yield of 10–12% makes this asset competitive with traditional bonds.

Source: Mineral Vault. On October 1, 2025, the startup team announced the launch of “the world’s first tokenized private placement in the oil sector” based on the Hedera blockchain, for full support of oil asset tokenization.

Developed with support from One World Petroleum, the project combines acquisition of proven oil-producing assets with collateralized lending to operators. Each ownership share is issued as a security token, ensuring automated compliance, investor rights verification, and full lifecycle management of the asset.

In the modern RWA sector, legal rights are secured through the use of specially developed token standards:

• ERC-7518 from Zoniqx, based on ERC-1155, adds dynamic compliance. Unlike older versions, it is designed for cross-chain transfers, maintaining all legal restrictions and owner data;
• ERC-3643 — a “smart” token with built-in black and white lists, used by leader Ondo Finance. Before each transaction, an oracle confirms: “Has the buyer completed KYC? Is he under sanctions? Is he allowed to own this asset according to his country’s laws?” If not, the transaction is automatically blocked;
• ERC-1400 — one of the earliest and most flexible standards for tokenizing complex financial instruments. It supports collective ownership, rights separation (e.g., income or governance shares), forced transfer by court order, and attaching legal documents to token metadata;
• ERC-4626 — a standard for tokenized yield vaults, forming the basis for many RWA funds like Ondo OUSG and BlackRock BUIDL. It unifies deposits, withdrawals, and yield calculations, simplifying their integration into DeFi as collateral assets.

Against the backdrop of real projects, the USOR (U.S. Oil Reserve) token on the Solana network stands out. In January 2026, it was actively discussed on social media due to rumors of accumulation by BlackRock wallets and Donald Trump’s family. However, Arkham Intelligence’s verification and project audit revealed no real ties to the US Department of Energy. The startup’s description contains technical inaccuracies and shows signs of scam.

Once again, RWA has proven its importance not only for corporations but also for the US government administration.

On January 22, American Resources Corporation, through its subsidiary ReElement Technologies and blockchain infrastructure provider SAGINT, announced the successful issuance of the world’s first token for critical minerals. The project confirmed technical readiness to meet US Defense Procurement Regulations.

The utility token, issued on the Sui blockchain, ensures traceability of the supply chain for purified neodymium oxide produced at ReElement’s plant in Noblesville, Indiana. It is designed as an internal audit and compliance tool for ReElement’s platform and its clients, integrating data and control protocols compliant with standards.