The past three days (January 19-21) saw ETH primarily impacted by macro risks and leverage liquidations, with technical weakness, divergence between on-chain and institutional signals, and overall oscillating downward movement. On the 21st, it briefly broke below $3,000, with a 24-hour decline of over 7%.

1. Daily Key News and Impact

• January 19 (Saturday): Macro environment, US-EU trade tensions intensify, Trump’s tariff threats increase risk aversion; technical, ETH lost the $3,230 support, daily chart broke EMA20 and Supertrend turned bearish, RSI neutral to weak, MACD green bars lengthened; on-chain, 7-day moving average trading volume nearly 2.5 million transactions hit a new high, Gas fees around $0.15 at low levels, staking volume about 36 million ETH set a record. Impact: Price pressured downward, market sentiment cautious, high leverage liquidation risk rising.

• January 20 (Sunday): Macro, geopolitical and policy concerns persist, funds prefer conservative positions; on-chain, MakinaFi was hacked, stolen 1,299 ETH (about $4.13 million), address poisoning or transaction inflation suspected; institutional, Trend Research borrowed 10 million USDT, suspected to increase ETH holdings, FG Nexus sold 2,500 ETH adding selling pressure. Impact: Hacker incident dampens confidence, institutional long-short divergence, price oscillates weakly.

• January 21 (Monday): Macro, Greenland geopolitical dispute + Japanese debt storm trigger “sell US” trades, US stocks/bonds/dollar all decline, funds flow into gold; market, ETH dropped below $3,000 to $2,908, 24-hour liquidation of $393 million, mostly long positions; institutional, Galaxy plans to launch a $100 million hedge fund for two-way trading. Impact: Panic selling, decline exceeds BTC, short-term support levels severely tested.

2. Key Influencing Factors Overview

1. Macro and Geopolitics: Trade friction + geopolitical conflicts + bond market volatility, risk appetite sharply drops, ETH declines with higher sensitivity than BTC.

2. Technical and Funds: Key moving averages broken, indicators turn bearish, leverage liquidations increase selling pressure, long liquidations dominate the market.

3. On-chain and Institutions: On-chain activity high but suspected of inflation, staking demand strong; institutional long-short divergence, short-term bearish, long-term positioning ongoing.

4. Regulation and Sentiment: Regulatory uncertainty persists, market panic intensifies, safe-haven assets favored.

3. Trading Strategy Recommendations

• Short-term (1-3 days): Strict position control (≤30%), monitor support at $2,900-$3,000, break below watch $2,800-$2,850; rebound at $3,050-$3,100 with resistance, can short lightly, stop-loss above $3,150; prioritize spot, futures leverage ≤5x, set stop-loss.

• Mid-term (1-2 weeks): Focus on the Jan 27-28 FOMC meeting, watch for dovish signals or risk appetite boost; buy core assets on dips, mainly dollar-cost averaging, avoid chasing highs; continuously monitor staking data and institutional fund flows, beware of new regulatory developments.

• Risk Warning: Macro volatility, leverage liquidations, hacking, regulatory changes may intensify ETH fluctuations, ensure proper risk management.
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