Is Dwayne Johnson a Democrat? What Polymarket's 2028 Predictions Reveal About The Rock's Political Future

The question of whether Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson holds Democratic Party loyalty has become increasingly relevant as decentralized prediction markets now rank him as a serious contender for the 2028 presidential race. On Polymarket, the data suggests a complicated picture: Johnson has recently outpaced Vice President Kamala Harris among Democratic hopefuls, signaling a shift in how political bettors view his candidacy.

The Democratic Primary Dark Horse: Johnson’s Rising Profile on Polymarket

Currently on Polymarket, shares betting on Johnson winning the Democratic nomination trade at 7 cents, implying a 7% probability of victory. This positions him fourth in the Democratic primary race, behind Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Pete Buttigieg. Harris, meanwhile, commands only a 5% implied probability, tying her with Andy Beshear in fifth place. Traders also see minimal chances for Tim Waltz, Michelle Obama, and Mark Cuban—each priced at just 1%.

For context, Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market platform, enabling users to speculate on real-world events including elections and financial movements by trading shares representing different outcomes. The platform has gained prominence as a novel way to gauge public sentiment on major political developments.

Political Independent Who Won Democrats Over

So is Johnson a Democrat? The answer is more nuanced than his Polymarket odds suggest. Johnson has explicitly identified himself as a centrist and political independent rather than a partisan Democrat. However, his trajectory reveals why Democratic insiders have courted him.

Back in 2023, Johnson disclosed that both major parties approached him to gauge his interest in running for president. This interest stemmed from a notable poll showing 46% of Americans would support a Johnson presidential bid. “That was an interesting poll that happened and I was really moved by that,” Johnson said at the time. “I was blown away and I was really honored. I got a visit from the parties asking me if I was going to run, and if I could run.”

His political history further illustrates his independent positioning. Johnson endorsed Joe Biden ahead of the 2020 election—a move that suggested alignment with Democratic interests. However, he notably refused to extend the same endorsement during the subsequent election cycle, underscoring his reluctance to be boxed into party loyalty.

With 392 million Instagram followers, Johnson commands extraordinary reach as a political communicator. His professional wrestling background, where he developed legendary “promo skills,” could translate into formidable campaign strengths should he pursue political office.

Why Investors Are Betting on Johnson for 2028

Polymarket’s emergence as a significant player in political prediction reflects broader institutional interest in decentralized prediction markets. In August 2025, the platform announced it had secured backing from venture capital firm 1789 Capital and added Donald Trump Jr. to its advisory board—a move that signaled growing mainstream legitimacy for decentralized betting on political outcomes.

This investment underscores why platforms like Polymarket matter: they aggregate dispersed knowledge from traders worldwide, creating real-time probability estimates for complex events. Johnson’s placement fourth among Democratic contenders reflects not a partisan commitment but rather trader assessments of his electability and media appeal relative to other potential nominees.

The distinction matters for understanding what the data actually shows. Johnson is not necessarily a Democrat by identification—but he remains a Democrat-friendly candidate according to current market valuations. Whether that calculus shifts between now and 2028 will depend on his statements, endorsements, and positioning as the election cycle unfolds.