How will the Federal Reserve's policy direction affect the market? A look from the Greenspan era to the present

【BlockBeats】Regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair, some recent opinions suggest referencing the Greenspan model, who served as the long-term head of the Fed in the 1990s. The logic behind this view is that strong economic growth does not necessarily directly trigger inflation or immediately initiate a rate hike cycle.

Greenspan’s policy trajectory is quite interesting—early in his tenure, he significantly cut interest rates, and later gradually raised them, while maintaining a relatively loose stance toward the rise of high-risk assets. Although this policy combination fostered a long-term boom in tech stocks and stimulated economic growth, the costs were heavy: the 2000 internet bubble burst marked a turning point, and the subsequent environment of ultra-low interest rates indirectly contributed to the 2008 housing crisis.

For current market participants, this history offers a profound lesson: a loose liquidity environment can indeed push up the prices of various assets, including cryptocurrencies, but policy turning points often lie hidden at the peak of prosperity. The future policy stance of the Federal Reserve will directly influence the cycle evolution of the entire digital asset market.