【ETH 1H Structure Analysis | Accelerated Bottoming and Oversold Rebound Opportunity】

#现货黄金再创新高
Short-term Trend Qualitative: Bearish Momentum Accelerating
ETH on the 1-hour timeframe shows a clear accelerating bearish structure. The price has significantly broken below the 3000 USD key level and is far from all cycle moving averages, exhibiting a "disconnected" decline. MA5 (2969) and MA10 (3048) are rapidly declining, with a steep bearish alignment, indicating heavy and persistent short-term selling pressure. The current price is testing the previous support around 2914 USD, and market sentiment has entered a panic phase.

Key Technical Levels and Structural Changes

1. Core Support Level Below: 2914.01 USD becomes the most important current technical reference point. This level is not only the previous low but also a critical threshold determining whether the decline will evolve into panic selling.
2. Resistance Reconfiguration Above: The original 3000 USD level has turned into a strong resistance. Closer resistance is located in the 3011-3030 USD range (near the recent platform lower boundary and MA10). Any effective rebound must first break through this area.
3. Moving Average System Suppression: The moving averages across different cycles have formed a perfect bearish divergence arrangement, with MA20 (3157) and MA30 (3204) forming a heavy resistance zone above, making it difficult to reach in the short term.

Momentum Indicators and Market Sentiment Signals

1. Downward Momentum Confirmation: The MACD double lines are diverging below the zero axis, with the green histogram (MACD:-25.28) lengthening, confirming that the 1-hour bearish momentum is accelerating.
2. Oversold and Rebound Opportunity: RSI has dropped to 23.85, entering a severely oversold zone. Historical data shows that on the 1-hour timeframe, RSI below 25 often indicates excessive short-term downward momentum release, with a high probability of technical rebound correction. This provides a observation window for left-side traders.
3. Volume Analysis: The decline is accompanied by increased volume, indicating panic selling. However, volume changes after sustained selling are often an important basis for judging short-term lows.

Market Outlook and Key Observation Points
The market is in a "panic bottoming and rebound brewing" phase of coexistence.

· Short-term Rebound Observation: Focus on the market reaction when the price first touches or slightly breaks below the 2914 support. If a long lower shadow or bullish engulfing pattern appears on the 1-hour chart, a technical rebound may be triggered, with the first target in the 2980-3010 range.
· Breakout Risk Warning: If the price drops volume-wise below 2910 without resistance, the downward space will further open, with the next target near 2865 USD.
· Trend Reversal Premise: Any sustained upward movement must be based on the price regaining stability and pushing the 1-hour MA5 to turn upward. Currently, no such signal has appeared.

(ETH 1H structure enters an extreme oversold zone, with intensified bulls and bears struggle. Subscribers can access the "Real-time Panic Index" and "Oversold Rebound Trigger Signal" alerts.)