Why Does BTC Need a Deeper Bottom to Open the Next Strong Growth Cycle?

Many people believe that the bottom of this BTC bear cycle is around $80,000. The reasoning is quite simple: if the price drops further, market sentiment will be severely damaged, capital will withdraw, and confidence will collapse. But from a long-term perspective, this view may not necessarily be correct. In fact, a too “shallow” bottom is not necessarily good for the market. On the contrary, it can prolong the accumulation cycle of institutions, cause the market to enter a tiring sideways phase, and most importantly: reduce the amplitude of the next growth cycle. The Market Always Operates Like a Spring The financial market operates like a spring: Compress more deeply → bounce back more stronglyCompress less → weaker rebound In previous cycles, sharp declines have always laid the foundation for explosive growth waves afterward. When the price is pushed down enough, selling pressure is exhausted, weak-handed investors exit the game, and institutions quietly accumulate – that is when a new cycle begins to form. If BTC only stays around $80,000, the accumulation process of institutions will be prolonged, and the market will be stuck in a wide trading range, lacking the momentum to form a truly strong upward trend. Lessons from ETH Let’s look back at ETH. In 2018, ETH experienced a brutal bear cycle, dropping over 90%. That fall laid the groundwork for the historic growth that followed. Conversely, if ETH had fallen as deeply as in 2018 during the 2022 bear cycle, it’s very likely that in the current bull cycle, ETH’s price would have already surpassed $5,000. But because the decline was not large enough, the growth potential was also limited. This is a very natural market law. A Deep Bottom is the Foundation for a Major Bull Cycle To have a strong, wide, and long-lasting next bull cycle, BTC needs a sufficiently deep bottom to: Cleanse leverage and short-term speculationEliminate weak capitalCreate a long enough accumulation zone for institutionsBuild a solid price foundation for a long-term uptrend From a market structure perspective, breaking the $80,000 mark, or even approaching $70,000, will create an ideal accumulation zone for the next major cycle. ETH is no exception. Conclusion A powerful bull cycle is never born from a “half-hearted” bear cycle. To soar high, you must accept falling deep. To have big waves, you need a low enough price foundation for a long time. The market is not afraid of declines – it only fears not having enough strength to bounce back. And if we want to witness a truly explosive growth cycle in the future, a deep, painful bottom—though difficult—is perhaps the greatest gift the market can give to patient investors.