Wheat Futures Post Modest Advances Amid Mixed Market Signals

Wheat markets are displaying marginal strength as Wednesday’s session gets underway, though the broader complex remains caught between competing forces. Tuesday’s close reflected this tension, with spring wheat varieties outperforming while Kansas City contracts faced selling pressure. Chicago’s soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures recorded small losses in nearby deliveries, while open interest expanded by 6,477 contracts through the session.

Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) wheat took the heaviest blow, finishing Tuesday down 6 to 7¼ cents as open interest contracted by 823 contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat, by contrast, managed fractional to 2-cent gains in front-month positions. This divergence highlights shifting sentiment across the three major wheat markets.

Global Supply Dynamics Reshaping Prices

Russia’s wheat export outlook for 2025/26 has been revised upward to 46.5 MMT by IKAR, a notable increase from their prior projection of 44.1 MMT. This supply expansion could exert longer-term pressure on global pricing. Meanwhile, European Commission figures show wheat shipments at 11.6 MMT between July 1 and January 11, slightly trailing last year’s comparable 11.8 MMT pace. French soft wheat ending stocks are estimated at 2.8 MMT by FranceAgriMer, holding a marginal edge compared to the previous month.

Weather and Technical Drivers

NOAA’s 7-day forecast offers mixed signals for North American production zones. The Southern Plains face minimal precipitation expectations over the coming week, while modest rainfall is anticipated across the soft red winter territory. These weather patterns may support marginal price adjustments in the near term.

Contract Settlement Overview

March 26 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.10½, posting a marginal 3/4-cent decline but now up 2 cents intraday. May 26 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.21¾, down 1 cent with a 2-cent gain in current trading. Kansas City’s March 26 contract finished at $5.19½, reflecting a steeper 7¼-cent loss but recovering 1¼ cents Wednesday morning. May 26 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.31¼, down 6¾ cents with 1-cent gains currently. Minneapolis spring wheat March 26 closed at $5.67½, up ¾ cent and now ahead 1½ cents. May 26 MIAX Wheat settled at $5.78½, up 1¼ cents with 1¾-cent gains in the current session.

The wheat complex continues navigating marginal momentum shifts as traders weigh supply revisions against weather expectations and technical positioning.