Ethereum at a critical point: what to expect from the Head and Shoulders pattern?

The Long-Term Bullish Perspective Supports the Market

Despite the current turbulence, the long-term outlook for Ethereum remains constructive. Experts like Tom Lee from Fundstrat project that ETH could reach $7,000–$9,000 in the next year, driven by exponential growth in real-world asset tokenization on the Ethereum network. Top-tier institutions like BlackRock and JPMorgan have already initiated pilot on-chain operations, which has raised the total value of real assets locked in Ethereum to over $20 billion. This institutional dynamism reinforces Ethereum’s position as the dominant platform for decentralized settlements.

Derivatives at All-Time Highs: An Ambiguous Signal

Paradoxically, while Ethereum’s price struggles at $3.10K ( with a -3.48% drop in 24 hours and volume of $560.08M ), activity in futures markets has reached unprecedented levels. Data reveals that for every dollar invested in the ETH spot market, nearly $5 are mobilized toward futures contracts. Platforms like Binance reported over $6.74 trillion in Ethereum futures trading just this year, almost double the amount recorded in 2024. This concentration in derivatives has generated greater volatility, with movements mainly driven by cascading liquidations rather than organic spot purchases.

Technical Structure: Shoulder Support Under Evaluation

Chart analysis suggests that Ethereum might be forming a Head and Shoulders pattern near $2,900. The sequence appears as follows: an initial move toward $3,200–$3,250 in December ( left shoulder ), followed by a more aggressive push above $3,400 ( head ), and finally a rebound contained around $3,100–$3,150 ( right shoulder ).

However, this structure still lacks confirmation. The shoulder support in the $2,900–$2,950 zone remains intact, and traders require a decisive 4-hour or daily close below this level, accompanied by sustained selling pressure, to validate a bearish reversal. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) remains in neutral territory between 45 and 50, not showing the typical weakening that characterizes classic Head and Shoulders reversals. This sideways price action suggests consolidation rather than imminent decline.

Critical Levels to Watch

Ethereum’s retracement has reached approximately 61.8% of the previous impulsive move, a level where technical corrections often find support. Immediate support remains at $2,900, but analysts warn that a break below $2,750 would constitute the next relevant defensive barrier. To confirm a bullish continuation, ETH must recover $3,550 and then break the top of the corrective channel where it has been moving since November 21.

Scheduled Volatility: Expected Liquidity Sweeps

Many experts anticipate sharp movements in the coming weeks. Historically, Ethereum triggers bearish liquidations by activating orders below apparent support levels before executing larger directional moves. With Bitcoin also approaching a strategic inflection point, cross-market volatility could intensify, testing recent lows before a clear direction emerges.

FAQs About Ethereum’s Projection

What is the expected price scenario for Ethereum in 2026?
Models suggest ETH could range between $4,700 and $14,100 in 2026, depending on market cycles, protocol upgrades, and institutional demand.

Can Ethereum surpass $15,000 by 2030?
Long-term projections indicate ETH could exceed $15,000 in 2030 if technical improvements, institutional adoption, and Layer-2 ecosystem expansion persist.

What are the main risks to Ethereum’s price?
Risk factors include regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic changes, concerns over staking centralization, and sentiment rotations in crypto markets.

Ethereum at a Crossroads: Next Decisive Move

The $2,900 level has become the ultimate battleground. A decisive break above or below will determine the price direction in the coming weeks. Traders are closely watching this shoulder support as the market deliberates between a bullish continuation driven by institutional adoption or a deeper correction that clears leveraged positions. The response will come when Ethereum demonstrates whether it can uphold its long-term promise or if it will face additional short-term turbulence.