The Federal Reserve has only a 5% chance of cutting interest rates in January, and the expectation for a rate cut in March remains low.

TokenSherpa · 2026-01-19T23:34:10+00:00

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January is only 5%, with expectations to keep the current rates unchanged. By March, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 20.7%, but the chance of no change remains high at 78.4%. Overall, there is a strong expectation of maintaining an hawkish stance in the short term, and the crypto market should exercise caution.

TokenSherpa

2026-01-19 23:34:10

Abstract generation in progress

【BlockBeats】The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut trend has always been a focus in the crypto circle. The latest data shows that the probability of a rate cut in January is extremely low—only 5%, with a 95% chance of maintaining the current rate. Looking ahead to March, market expectations have slightly loosened. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 20.7%, but the voice of holding steady still dominates, with a probability of 78.4%. As for a more aggressive cumulative 50 basis point rate cut, it is almost a low-probability event, with only a 0.9% chance. Overall, the expectation that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance in the short term is strong, and for the crypto market accustomed to low interest rates, caution regarding risks is still necessary.

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GasFeeCry

· 10h ago

This dead hawkish Federal Reserve, don't expect any easing in the short term. The crypto world still has to endure.

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PensionDestroyer

· 11h ago

The 5% probability in January... Are you joking with me? The Federal Reserve is determined not to cut interest rates. The Federal Reserve is going all out to hammer the coin price down, completely hawkish. No luck in the short term, everyone brace for being trapped. 78.4% remain unchanged, this data says it all, it looks like a long-term fight. Dreams of getting rich quick shattered, the Federal Reserve has shattered my hopes of rate cuts. Only 0.9% for 50 basis points, this is simply insulting our expectations. Want to cut rates? Dream on, the Federal Reserve is holding steady this time. The era of low interest rates is over, the crypto world must adapt to the new reality.

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SatoshiLeftOnRead

· 11h ago

It's the same old story again. When will the hawks finally loosen up? We're almost waiting into stone.

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gas_fee_trauma

· 11h ago

Don't think about January anymore, hawkish and tough, we still have to endure --- 78.4% unchanged... This is telling us to continue environmental protection with high interest rates --- A 5% chance can be brought up, how desperate is that haha --- Short-term stay flat, wait for the March show, anyway, coins can't run away --- The Federal Reserve just doesn't want to give us a way out, the crypto market can only resist hard --- A cumulative 50 basis point cut of only 0.9%? Laughable, it's just pie in the sky --- Maintaining hawkishness has been anticipated for a long time, no surprises --- The era of low interest rates will not return, everyone must adapt to the new normal --- The 20.7% rate cut probability in March is also hard to believe, still too uncertain --- The crypto circle will be eaten by the Federal Reserve again, all because we rely so much on the US dollar

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SignatureDenied

· 11h ago

January is basically a no-go, the Federal Reserve is determined to hold back... With such a hawkish stance for so long, it's still incredible that cryptocurrencies can rise. Wait until March, but the chances aren't very optimistic either. Be mentally prepared. Soon we'll be wiped out by the bears. The Federal Reserve is just deliberately hammering us to death. Wait a minute, this data shows 78.4% remaining unchanged... what are we still hoping for then? It feels like this cycle will wear out quite a few people.

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