2026 Gold Price Outlook: Market Trends and Key Variables Investors Need to Know

Why Will Gold Prices Continue to Rise This Year?

Last year, gold prices experienced an unprecedented increase. As of January 13, the domestic gold price was 952,000 won per don (a traditional Korean weight unit), which is over 76% higher than the same period last year at 541,000 won. International gold prices also rose to approximately $4,585 per ounce, up 37.97% compared to six months ago and 5.85% since the beginning of the year.

This sharp surge is not just a short-term fluctuation. Looking at the charts from Korea Gold Exchange, we can see a steady upward trend over most periods. This indicates that the demand for gold continues to be driven by a deepening preference for safe assets and increasing economic uncertainty.

How High Will Gold Prices Go by 2026?

Major financial institutions predict that gold prices will continue to rise this year. JP Morgan suggested that prices could reach around $5,055 per ounce by the end of the year, while Goldman Sachs assessed that there is room for further increases in the first half of the year. Furthermore, HSBC is even more optimistic, forecasting that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce during the first half of the year.

However, some experts mention the possibility of a correction in the second half, making volatility management essential. Overall, the likelihood is high that gold prices will maintain a bullish trend through 2026, but cautious position management is necessary.

Four Key Variables Driving Gold Prices

1. Spread of De-dollarization Policies

Movements to reduce dependence on the US dollar in international trade and finance are accelerating. China is actively promoting the internationalization of the yuan, expanding its use in trade with various countries, and signing currency swap agreements. India is also working to increase the use of the rupee in transactions with trading partners.

Countries under US sanctions are diversifying their assets into gold and other currencies instead of relying solely on the dollar. The reduction of dollar dependence directly increases international demand for gold, which can be a major driver of rising gold prices.

2. Global Geopolitical Instability

Gold is considered the safest refuge asset during economic crises. During the 2008 financial crisis, the 2011 Eurozone debt crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, gold prices hit record highs each time.

Currently, a series of events affecting the global economy are unfolding, including US-China trade disputes, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. These uncertainties drive investors to flock to gold as a safe haven.

3. Signs of Economic Weakness in Developed Countries

Concerns about economic recession increase demand for gold. Especially as economic uncertainty grows, investors seek gold, which offers no interest income but guarantees principal.

4. Central Bank Interest Rate Cuts

Interest rate cuts push up gold prices in two ways. First, lower yields on deposits and bonds reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. Second, rate cuts are interpreted as signals of economic weakness, prompting investors to move funds into safe assets like gold.

Advice for Investors

While the outlook for gold prices in 2026 appears promising, uncertainties remain. Despite several positive signals, investors should prepare for potential corrections in the second half of the year. If considering gold investments, it is wise to adopt proper position management and a dollar-cost averaging strategy.