2026-01-14 12:00:17

Tariff policies may face legal challenges. The market is already paying attention to the upcoming Supreme Court ruling — the probability of Trump policy losing in the prediction platform is priced at 72%.

What does this probability mean? If the Supreme Court rules that the tariff measures are illegal, the collected tariff revenues may need to be refunded. For the market, this is not only a policy adjustment but also a potential sharp revision of expectations.

Policy uncertainty is often a key trigger for market volatility. From an asset allocation perspective, the impact of such macro events on risk assets is worth monitoring. How it will evolve specifically depends on the final judicial decision.

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AirdropHunter9000

· 6h ago

72% chance? Uh... that means players are betting on the policy losing. Honestly, if this were to reverse, the market would have to explode. If it's truly deemed illegal, where would the money for tax refunds come from? It would be a mess again. But on the other hand, this kind of uncertainty is actually my favorite shorting opportunity. The greater the volatility, the easier it is to profit. Let's see what the Supreme Court decides.

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MysteriousZhang

· 01-15 23:53

A 72% probability basically means that gamblers are all betting on Trump to lose, but it only counts once the gavel falls. Wait, refund of tariff revenue? It would be outrageous if the money paid earlier can be returned. The market is probably going to twitch this wave.

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PumpBeforeRug

· 01-14 12:29

72% chance of losing the case? We'll have to wait for the court's ruling to determine who takes over. Right now, everyone is just gambling with a gambler's mentality. As for the compensation... it feels like the market hasn't fully reacted yet. If the tariff refunds are actually implemented, risk assets will need to be re-priced. That will be the real test.

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HashRateHustler

· 01-14 12:18

72% chance of losing the case this time, be careful. If a refund is really required, it will cause a fuss. At that point, the market will need to reprice, and risk assets will have to be adjusted no matter how you look at it. Once the court makes a final ruling, us retail investors will have to ride the roller coaster... Tariffs really bring the most uncertainty. Let's wait for the judicial decision.

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LayerZeroHero

· 01-14 12:18

The 72% probability data is interesting, but what I care more about is—if it truly results in a loss, how will the refund mechanism be executed? On-chain tracking or traditional liquidation? Has anyone modeled the asset flow in the worst-case scenario?

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FlashLoanLord

· 01-14 12:04

72% chance the price has entered; if there's really a turnaround, risk assets will have to eat dirt. If you ask me, this judicial ruling is the real black swan, more deadly than any policy adjustments. Once the tax rebate issue is settled, risk assets will be reshuffled—this is the core contradiction. Policy uncertainty? That's called legal uncertainty, and the market has already priced it in. With such a high probability of losing the tariff lawsuit, someone should have already started buying at the bottom...

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BlockchainNewbie

· 01-14 12:00

72% chance of losing the case? Now this is interesting, the tariff drama isn't over yet. If it's truly deemed illegal, the scale of refunds would be huge... The market will have to reprice everything. Uncertainty is the most annoying, more torturous than clear negative news.

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