2026-01-14 06:25:56

Market analysis time.

Behind today’s market movements, there is a key signal that most people have overlooked—the 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and gold has first touched the zero line, approaching negative territory. What does this mean? In simple terms, the two are now completely decoupled.

Historical data speaks volumes. Whenever this signal appears, BTC’s average gain over the next two months is 56%. The last time this happened was in mid-2022, and everyone has seen the subsequent trend.

More importantly, the macro environment is changing. Global M2 growth has restarted, and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) is nearing its end. This is no coincidence. According to industry research institutions, a new cycle of global monetary easing has begun, and this liquidity wave is expected to continue driving BTC’s performance until 2026.

In other words, the market’s driving logic is shifting from short-term emotional speculation to a more fundamental factor—money supply expansion. This transition essentially reflects a cycle shift from recession to expansion.

The current macro environment is indeed unprecedentedly favorable. The key is to understand the specific rhythm and timing window to better grasp the pace.

BTC-0,43%

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AllTalkLongTrader

· 5h ago

56% increase? I heard similar words around this time last year, and look what happened... The decoupling signal rings out again, but this time it's really different? M2 acceleration, QT nearing the end... sounds good, but I'm afraid it's just empty talk 2026 is still far away, let's focus on the current rhythm first What good is the overall positive environment? It still depends on the Federal Reserve's stance I've heard this logic before last year, haha

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OnchainSniper

· 6h ago

A 56% average increase? Sounds great, but the key is to see when this round of M2 expansion will actually materialize.

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NFT_Therapy_Group

· 01-14 06:55

A 56% increase? That data sounds suspicious; we need to keep a close eye on it.

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BridgeTrustFund

· 01-14 06:54

Decoupling signals are indeed worth paying attention to, but I still have reservations about the 56% figure. --- Once again, it's M2 growth and the tail end of QT. Feels like a new set of logic can be spun every time. --- 2026 is still far away. Let's just survive through next year first. --- The decoupling of gold is real, but could it just be short-term volatility? --- I've heard the term liquidity wave too many times; it's more practical to look at the market charts. --- History repeating does not mean history will repeat itself; this logical flaw is quite significant. --- Talking about rhythm and time windows is easy, but the real bottleneck is exactly that.

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TokenTherapist

· 01-14 06:53

A 56% increase? Sounds good, but I saw that wave in 2022 too. How did it turn out later? Don't we all know in our hearts?

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LeverageAddict

· 01-14 06:51

Another 52-week decoupling signal, guaranteed 56% increase? Why do I feel like it's always the same talk Tired of the "BTC is about to take off" hype, just wait and see The real gamble is whether the Federal Reserve will actually loosen monetary policy, don't be fooled by macro narratives Decoupling is decoupling, anyway I'm already fully invested This time is different? That's what they said in 2022 too, haha

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