The recent crypto market is putting on quite a show again. The total network hash rate has plummeted from 3.71 PH/s to 2.74 PH/s, a drop of nearly 29%, equivalent to half of the mining power being collectively phased out. Strangely, the daily output of Ant L9 miners has actually increased from 60 to 85 coins, with a 41.7% surge in profits. This move is truly outrageous.

Many people are confused when they see these data: hash rate decreases, yet profits still rise? The reasoning isn't complicated. The industry has been experiencing significant fluctuations recently, with some miners unable to sustain their capital chains and forced to shut down and exit, clearing out a portion of participants from the market. The miners who remain continue to operate, effectively sharing a larger piece of the pie, which indeed boosts short-term profits. But this is only superficial prosperity.

To put it plainly, this is the opposite of "bad money drives out good." A continuous decline in hash rate means the network's security is weakening. If no new miners enter the scene later, this false prosperity won't last long—about two weeks, and reality will set back in. Essentially, it's still an imbalance of supply and demand, not a value reconfiguration.

Looking at DOGE's price now, some have dug up historical data suggesting that hash rate declines are often accompanied by price increases. But don't be fooled by this logic. There have been a few instances in the past where this was true, but only if the ecosystem made real progress, technological breakthroughs occurred, and capital was genuinely flowing in. Relying solely on hash rate adjustments to push prices up is inherently fragile support. Once market sentiment shifts, these inflated profits and price rebounds can easily collapse.

Having observed this market for many years, my deepest insight is that every wave of crypto market movement has its own logic, but it's also easy to be misled by short-term data. Hard indicators like hash rate and miner profits are worth paying attention to, but what's more important is to understand the underlying driving forces. The recent surge is more about structural opportunities after market clearing, rather than a sign of improved fundamentals.