#美联储政策与货币政策 Nomura Securities' warning is worth paying attention to. Let's clarify the core logic: new chairman takes office in May → first interest rate cut in June → subsequent policy disagreements intensify → uncertainty erupts from July to November. This time window is very critical.

From an on-chain fund perspective, it is now essential to closely monitor the movements of large-scale funds. Once market expectations shift from a "rate cut cycle" to a "policy deadlock," signals of institutional funds pre-positioning or withdrawing are usually observed—such as the reduction of top-tier wallets in the US stock market, and the scale of stablecoins flowing into exchanges—all of which are worth monitoring.

Even more alert should be the expectation of "fleeing US assets." Once this expectation forms, it could trigger a liquidity reversal. At that time, not only will stocks, bonds, and currencies face a triple decline, but the crypto market will also come under pressure—after all, the correlation between USD liquidity and Bitcoin has been quite clear in recent years.

It is recommended to watch two signals: one is the change in the US Treasury yield curve, and the other is the shift in whale wallet attitudes towards stablecoins. If before July you see large funds building defensive positions, then risk levels should be raised. Policy uncertainty is often the most costly expense.