Yesterday, the US released December inflation data, which showed relatively stable performance. The CPI annual rate and core CPI annual rate remained flat compared to the previous month, with no further increase; more notably, the month-over-month growth rate of core inflation was below market expectations, indicating that the inflation decline is not due to short-term factors like government shutdowns, but a genuine trend shift.

If this downward momentum continues in the coming months, it could open up more room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 2026. However, the reality is that even with decent December data, it does not change the Fed's determination to hold steady in January. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate cut in January is only 1.7%, and Fed insiders have even stated that the chance of no rate hike in January is nearly 100%.

What is even more noteworthy is the potential Supreme Court ruling on tariffs expected early this morning — this event could have a significant impact on the market. According to official estimates, if the government’s tariff policies are deemed illegal, it may be required to refund previously collected tariffs, involving hundreds of billions of dollars. Considering that tariff revenue for the entire year of 2025 is about $250 billion, and if compensation is also paid for investments made by companies in the US due to tariffs, the total could skyrocket to trillions. These funds have already been spent on fiscal deficits and various subsidies, so if refunds are required, the US government’s only option would be to issue massive amounts of debt, which would put enormous pressure on both the fiscal situation and the US dollar.

On-chain, as BTC rises, trading volume also increases, mainly due to short-term investors who bought the dip earlier cashing out their gains. However, the chip structure remains stable, with BTC once again returning to the key support zone of $91,000–$96,000, indicating solid support below. Exchange data shows that Coinbase’s BTC trading volume has significantly increased, while other platforms remain relatively stable, reflecting an increased buying intensity among US investors during US trading hours. Spot ETFs are also beginning to see net inflows, with both BTC and ETH ending their consecutive net outflows. Future attention should be paid to whether the inflow volume can continue to grow.