#密码资产动态追踪 Bitcoin is repeatedly bouncing off key support levels, while the sentiment among large holders is undergoing subtle changes.

A very important signal in this correction is that some major holders are experiencing unrealized net losses for the first time. Don’t be fooled by this numerical change; from a historical cycle perspective, such a situation only occurs near deep retracements.

Currently, BTC price is stuck at several extremely sensitive levels: the 50-day moving average and the volume-weighted average price formed after the halving are being tested repeatedly, but have not yet been effectively broken. On-chain pressure indicators have already returned to the "capitulation point" level seen early in this cycle — a detail worth paying attention to.

Three changing data points you must face:

First, realized losses have suddenly surged. The supply in loss has exceeded 7.5 million coins, indicating that panic-driven chip turnover is accelerating. Second, the unrealized profits of the new generation of whales have turned negative — the last time this happened was during the 2022 peak crash. Third, short-term holders are heavily trapped, with a large amount of chips underwater — a structure that historically often signals that the market is approaching exhaustion.

There is a striking contrast in the market now: prices are still struggling near support levels, but the sentiment has already collapsed.

When both price structure and market mentality are pushed to the limit, there are usually only two paths forward: either quickly releasing volatility to completely clear out accumulated emotions; or, after panic is truly exhausted, triggering a directional reversal.

This is not about predicting the market direction now. Really. It’s about telling you that signals of this level don’t appear when the market is comfortable. Major volatility often occurs during the most suppressed, least expected moments.

How it will unfold next, the market will soon give the answer. Instead of guessing ups or downs, it’s better to understand the cycle.