Geopolitical tensions are heating up the prediction markets. Polymarket bettors are pricing in an 81% probability of US military action against Iran before the end of June, while the White House is publicly downplaying escalation scenarios. The disconnect? Markets are betting on something different from official messaging. Sources suggest non-military options remain on the table, but traders aren't convinced—they're putting serious money where they think the risk actually lies. When Wall Street and Washington tell different stories, the odds on prediction markets tend to speak louder than press releases.