2026-01-14 03:30:02

Since 2022, the dance steps of Bitcoin and the US stock market have been aligned. Every move by the Federal Reserve in adjusting monetary policy causes Bitcoin to sway accordingly. What does this mean? It indicates that Bitcoin has officially been incorporated into the global mainstream asset pricing system.

You may have heard of the four-year cycle myth of Bitcoin. Historically, this cycle was driven by three factors: halving events, retail investors' concentrated holdings, and its natural disconnection from macroeconomics. It sounds logically complete, but now this theory is outdated.

The halving mechanism is still in place, but the marginal effects are diminishing. More importantly, the pricing power has shifted from miners and retail investors to institutional investors. These players are not playing the guessing game of halving but are instead looking at macro big-picture indicators like actual interest rates and US dollar liquidity.

In other words, Bitcoin is increasingly resembling a traditional safe-haven asset. Its price movements are now more influenced by the ebb and flow of global liquidity rather than being driven solely by the four-year supply curve. What does this mean for traders? They can ponder that themselves.

BTC2,89%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

11 Likes

Reward
11
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

TradFiRefugee

· 7h ago

Institutions are here, and retail investors' celebration is over. This is the reality. I should have known not to mess with the four-year cycle theory. Now it's all about reading the Federal Reserve's mood. Wait, in that case, what's so special about Bitcoin... Damn, it has become a liquidity game again. No wonder it was so tough last year. Wow, the halving now really serves no purpose at all. Now I finally understand why it always moves in sync with the US stock market; there's no escaping it. Liquidity is the real boss; everything else is just clouds.

View OriginalReply0

GweiWatcher

· 7h ago

The transfer of pricing power has been well articulated. Once institutions come in, Bitcoin truly departs from retail narratives. Now it's on the same level as the Federal Reserve.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidityWizard

· 7h ago

So now it's the institutions playing, and we retail investors can only follow the trend? That logic sounds a bit uncomfortable.

View OriginalReply0

DegenGambler

· 8h ago

That's right, we are now in the era of institutional dominance. The retail investors' four-year cycle theory should indeed be discarded. Honestly, it's a bit heartbreaking that Bitcoin has become a liquidity tool. When the Federal Reserve sneezes, the crypto market catches a cold. Is this still decentralized assets? Haha. The pricing power has shifted hands, and our group's advantages are now completely gone. This is how it is when institutions come in; the game rules have changed entirely, no different from traditional finance. This analysis is spot on. Once the safe-haven asset label is attached, there's no turning back.

View OriginalReply0

BloodInStreets

· 8h ago

Institutional entry is like this, turning retail investors' playground into their ATM. The four-year cycle is dead, but our accounts didn't last much longer.

View OriginalReply0

DeFiAlchemist

· 8h ago

the four-year cycle's been transmuted into something else entirely... institutional flows are the new philosopher's stone, tbh. macro liquidity dynamics now dictate the price discovery, not halving schedules anymore. pretty wild how btc went from being this esoteric rebellion to just another asset in the global liquidity pool.

Reply0