Bitcoin finally broke above the 95,000 resistance level. From a technical cycle perspective, the recent rally after three consecutive months of decline on the monthly chart is just a technical rebound; the true rebound top should be around 97,000 to 98,000. As for whether it can break through 100,000, honestly, it's quite difficult. Even if it temporarily crosses above, it's mostly triggered by short squeeze spikes, making it hard to hold steady. This level is heavily stacked with trapped positions and is also a key Fibonacci retracement level with a 50% drop from the high, marking the boundary between bull and bear.

Looking at the technical indicators makes it even clearer. The 20-week moving average is about to cross below the 50-week moving average, the monthly moving averages have already experienced a death cross, and trading volume continues to shrink—these are strong signs of a weakening long-term trend. On the macro side, the Federal Reserve is likely to reduce the frequency of rate cuts in the first half of the year. If inflation picks up again, rate hikes could be paused altogether. Under the tight liquidity environment, this rebound's height is destined to be limited, and many funds optimistic about 150,000 or 200,000 may get trapped again.

Regarding holdings, ZEC and XMR are key focuses. Yesterday, XMR led a good rally along with DASH, but ZEC's rebound was weak, mainly because the core development team collectively left, and no one is controlling the market anymore. ZEC's rebound range is estimated to be between 460 and 470; I don't plan to add positions below 500 for now.

XMR remains strong and bullish, with the 4-hour chart continuously pushing higher. Strangely, the funding rate has remained positive; logically, in a severely overbought short-term situation, short positions should be flooding in, and the rate should have turned negative by now. This is unusual and may indicate that the main players' holdings are too concentrated. Such strong market makers are very cautious when shorting, so observing rather than rushing in is more prudent. I will continue to perform top-calling operations on XMR; if a significant pullback occurs midway, I will first close part of the positions before continuing. Recently, I also launched a neutral robot strategy from 630 to 720, using the oscillation during the topping phase to observe XMR's topping pattern.