Bitcoin's surge today is not accidental. Looking at the bigger picture, at least three factors are simultaneously at play, creating this market movement.
First, let's talk about inflation data. After the US December CPI was released, the year-over-year growth rate was 2.7%, exactly in line with market expectations, with no surprises. This number may seem ordinary, but it is actually significant—it neither scares the Federal Reserve into aggressive rate hikes nor raises concerns about a hard landing for the economy. The market is basically pricing in that the Fed will hold steady in January, which is undoubtedly positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. With less tightening in the purse strings, funds seeking returns naturally become more confident.
Next, consider the political impact. Federal Reserve Chair Powell has been subjected to a criminal investigation initiated by U.S. federal prosecutors, and the Department of Justice has also summoned him—this development came somewhat unexpectedly. The market's initial reaction was one of suspense: will the independence of the Fed be compromised? The reduced certainty in the financial system means funds need an outlet. Since Bitcoin does not rely on any government for direct management, it inherently has safe-haven properties, leading to a flood of capital seeking refuge.
On the technical side, the situation is also fueling the rally. Bitcoin ETF funds had been continuously flowing out recently, but now funds are starting to flow back in. After repeatedly testing the range between $90,500 and $91,200, today it directly broke through the short-term resistance at $92,000. Once a technical breakout occurs, follow-up buying naturally surges, making the upward move a matter of trend-following.
The convergence of these three forces—stable inflation data, safe-haven capital inflows, and confirmed technical breakout—makes Bitcoin's performance today an inevitable result.
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Bitcoin's surge today is not accidental. Looking at the bigger picture, at least three factors are simultaneously at play, creating this market movement.
First, let's talk about inflation data. After the US December CPI was released, the year-over-year growth rate was 2.7%, exactly in line with market expectations, with no surprises. This number may seem ordinary, but it is actually significant—it neither scares the Federal Reserve into aggressive rate hikes nor raises concerns about a hard landing for the economy. The market is basically pricing in that the Fed will hold steady in January, which is undoubtedly positive for risk assets like Bitcoin. With less tightening in the purse strings, funds seeking returns naturally become more confident.
Next, consider the political impact. Federal Reserve Chair Powell has been subjected to a criminal investigation initiated by U.S. federal prosecutors, and the Department of Justice has also summoned him—this development came somewhat unexpectedly. The market's initial reaction was one of suspense: will the independence of the Fed be compromised? The reduced certainty in the financial system means funds need an outlet. Since Bitcoin does not rely on any government for direct management, it inherently has safe-haven properties, leading to a flood of capital seeking refuge.
On the technical side, the situation is also fueling the rally. Bitcoin ETF funds had been continuously flowing out recently, but now funds are starting to flow back in. After repeatedly testing the range between $90,500 and $91,200, today it directly broke through the short-term resistance at $92,000. Once a technical breakout occurs, follow-up buying naturally surges, making the upward move a matter of trend-following.
The convergence of these three forces—stable inflation data, safe-haven capital inflows, and confirmed technical breakout—makes Bitcoin's performance today an inevitable result.