2026-01-14 00:00:44

#策略性加码BTC January 14 Morning Quick Notes

Recently, geopolitical turmoil has been unpredictable, and every move by the US has been affecting the market nerves. But let’s not get caught up in geopolitical drama; instead, let’s refocus on what crypto markets care most about—monetary policy. Here’s a key piece of information: Federal Reserve Chair Powell is set to step down in May, which will directly influence the Fed’s policy direction in 2026. This has become the biggest suspense in the bullish market.

From a macro perspective, a drastic reversal still seems unlikely. I remain optimistic about the recent surge in cryptocurrencies. But markets are always volatile; short-term trading is about timing, entering at the right points, and reading market sentiment. I’m confident in the long-term, but we should also be cautious of short-term pullbacks and turning points.

**Market Talk**: $BTC daily chart has been rising steadily over the past few days, with consecutive bullish candles. Yesterday’s large bullish candle broke through previous resistance levels, showing strong bullish momentum. The hourly chart is also trending upward, with higher lows and higher highs, but after such a long rally, a short-term correction is beginning to appear.

**Indicator Signals**: Hourly MACD bars are expanding, indicating bullish energy is accumulating. However, DIF and DEA are approaching overbought levels, hinting at a possible divergence. The daily MACD has experienced a golden cross and continues to diverge, maintaining a bullish trend. The hourly RSI has broken above 70 into overbought territory, facing short-term resistance; the daily RSI is between 60-70, still not at the top, so there’s room to go higher. Regarding moving averages, the hourly EMA7, EMA30, and EMA120 are aligned in a perfect bullish formation, with the price firmly above EMA7, supporting steady upward movement. This line is a key support in the recent trend. The daily EMA is also arranged in a bullish manner, indicating a long-term bullish outlook.

**Trading Ideas**:
$BTC: Short between 95800-96800, target 93200-94200
$ETH: Short between 3360-3400, target 3240-3280

BTC-0,92%

ETH-2,06%

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YieldWhisperer

· 19h ago

The news of Powell stepping down in May is indeed worth paying attention to, but a more immediate concern is that BTC's recent surge has been a bit rapid. Be cautious of pitfalls in the short term.

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GasDevourer

· 01-14 04:07

Powell stepping down in May is indeed quite gossip-worthy, but compared to all these geopolitical messes, I'm more interested in how his successor will play the Federal Reserve. This wave of BTC rally can't really hold up; with such obvious hourly overbought conditions still pushing forward, I bet there will be some movement in the next 4 hours.

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defi_detective

· 01-14 00:27

The news of Powell stepping down in May is really a suspenseful matter. The direction for 2026 depends entirely on his successor. Bulls, don't get too cocky just yet. BTC's recent rally is satisfying, but the MACD divergence signal is a bit uncomfortable. Be cautious in the short term. The pressure around 96,000 is indeed heavy. I wouldn't be too surprised if it retraces to the 93,000 range. Indicators are overbought but still pushing higher. The pace is a bit rapid, brother. Being long-term optimistic is correct, but blindly going all-in now really requires caution.

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GmGmNoGn

· 01-14 00:25

The news of Powell stepping down in May definitely needs to be watched, but it's a bit early to start worrying about how to handle the 26-year situation... The short-term overbought signals are so obvious in this wave, yet some still dare to chase the highs?

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BetterLuckyThanSmart

· 01-14 00:15

The news of Powell stepping down in May feels overly hyped, but it is indeed a variable. The short-term overbought risk should definitely be watched, but this rally is still strong.

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AirdropHunterKing

· 01-14 00:09

The Powell resignation in May is indeed something to keep an eye on. However, compared to the geopolitical aspect, I am more concerned about whether this wave of rally can allow some short investors to get a free ride. I generally agree with this analysis approach. Short-term, the 95800-96800 range is indeed a good sniper zone. But I have to say, with such obvious overbought signals, and the divergence between DIF and DEA already appearing, we still need to be cautious. Last time, I chased a long position when RSI exceeded 70 and was directly caught with a five-point loss. The EMA7 line is a key support, no doubt, but don’t be fooled. My experience is that when the hourly MACD starts to expand but also shows divergence, it often signals accumulation. The real shorting opportunity might still be ahead. Long-term bullish is correct, but the short-term correction turning point... I feel it might come even faster than analysts suggest. Reduce positions first to protect yourself, brother.

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BridgeNomad

· 01-14 00:03

ngl, powell stepping down in may is the real tell here... that liquidity pivot could cascade through the whole system like one of those exploit postmortems nobody wants to revisit. btc looking solid on the daily but those hourly overbought signals? been there, seen the rug pull. 95800-96800 short makes sense if you're risk-adjusted about it.

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