#2026年比特币价格展望 The correct direction is really crucial—let's talk about why it's so difficult to hold spot positions and preserve capital during this market cycle.

Recently, if you look closely at the $BTC movement, you'll notice a characteristic: the overall trend is still upward, but the process is extremely complex. Unlike traditional stock markets that experience a one-sided rally, the crypto market spends most of its time oscillating and rebounding. What does this mean? It means simply holding long positions and waiting for a rise requires steel-like mental resilience. The rollercoaster-like fluctuations are enough to make people doubt life.

After securing a good position in long positions, you get caught in a back-and-forth, attracted by rebounds, only to be hit by pullbacks. There’s little time left for you to react—the real gains often happen late at night when you're sleeping, and by the time you wake up, it's already passed. This rhythm tests spot traders.

**Why is not losing money more important than making money?**

90% of traders are holding positions. Think about what protecting your principal means—it means you still have a chance to continue betting. Many people see a dip and rush to cut losses, see a rise and turn bearish, resulting in repeatedly missing out on opportunities. Even worse is blindly shorting: if you go all-in at the wrong moment to short, only to be caught off guard by a rebound, the risk of liquidation is just a matter of minutes.

**What is the current strategic approach?**

Wait for $BTC to rebound and touch the 5-day moving average upper band before considering shorting, and further confirm that the weekly upper band is a signal for heavy short positions. The benefit of this approach is clear—you profit from the rebound while avoiding the risk of catching the bottom. Your life is preserved, and your capital remains intact.

Conversely, in the stock market, once you identify the core leaders, during the pullback phase, just blindly buy the dip. The market logic is clearer, and the traces of institutional manipulation are more obvious. The wave structure in the crypto market, however, is very irregular, and that’s where the difficulty lies.

If you are still holding on in the crypto space, the simplest and most effective strategy is this: patiently wait for the rebound to be in place, then execute a big short across the entire market. The timing is most likely this week or next week.