Yesterday, gold prices once again experienced a "roller coaster" ride. The market opened around 4580 and hovered there, then surged directly to 4634 by midday, hitting a recent high. However, the bulls couldn't hold the momentum, and in the afternoon, prices started to fall sharply. During the European session, the decline accelerated, and finally closed around 4586. From the high to the close, it retraced over 50 points. Under the double top resistance, it appears to have completely shifted to a bearish trend in the short term.

Let's analyze the news factors. The US January manufacturing data came out better than expected, which stirred market expectations of rate cuts—though these expectations have been pushed further back. As a result, the US dollar strengthened, which is not good news for gold prices. Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East has not escalated, and safe-haven sentiment has decreased accordingly. Funds are starting to withdraw from safe-haven assets, causing gold to lose upward momentum. Additionally, the world's largest gold ETF has recently been reducing its holdings, and this cautious attitude among institutions further adds to the downside pressure.

From a technical perspective, the 1-hour K-line has already broken below the key support level of 4600. The moving averages are in a bearish alignment, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the MACD has already shown a volume-increasing death cross. Looking downward, the first support is at 4580; if it cannot hold, then 4500 is the next target. On the upside, 4600 is a resistance level, and a rebound to this level is likely to continue downward.

Trading strategy: Consider shorting on rallies. It is more appropriate to short within the 4605 to 4635 range, with a stop-loss above 4645. First target is 4565; if broken, then keep an eye on 4545.