#2026年比特币价格展望 Latest data released, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy has a new outlook.

CME "Federal Reserve Watch" just released a set of figures, directly breaking the market's previous expectations of rate cuts. In the January FOMC meeting, the probability of a rate cut was only 2.8%, while the chance of holding rates steady was as high as 97.2%—essentially a certainty.

What about March? The situation hasn't improved much. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is only 25.8%, and the chance of no change remains at 72.5%. As for the aggressive move of a 50 basis point cut in one go? The probability is as low as 0.7%, almost negligible.

The logic behind this is quite clear: the Federal Reserve remains very firm on inflation. Although market sentiment has eased in recent weeks, these central bank officials still want to wait longer. They need more convincing data to confirm that inflation is truly under control. Short-term price fluctuations won't change their decision-making framework.

In other words, the dream of "rate cuts at the beginning of the year and liquidity returning to the market" now seems to be postponed until after mid-year. At least for now, everything depends on how inflation data performs.

What do you think of this situation? Do you believe the Federal Reserve is too conservative and missed the best window to pivot? Or do you think this cautious attitude is itself a necessary course of action to combat inflation? Leave your thoughts in the comments.