#密码资产动态追踪 CME's latest release of the "Federal Reserve Watch" data has just come out, and the market's expectations for rate cuts have already noticeably cooled.

Looking at the data for January — the probability that the Federal Reserve will hold steady is as high as 97.2%, with only a 2.8% chance of a rate cut. Essentially, this spells the end of the hope for a rate cut at the start of the new year.

What about March? The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is only 26.8%, while the chance of maintaining high interest rates remains as high as 72.5%. As for a 50 basis point cut in one go, the probability is just 0.7% — almost negligible.

The logic behind these numbers is clear: **the market’s previous eager anticipation of a spring rate cut has basically fizzled out**. The Fed’s stance on tackling inflation is far more hawkish than we had expected.

Although recent market sentiment has rebounded, central bank officials are as clear as a mirror — they cannot relax policy too quickly. They need solid data to prove that inflation has been thoroughly contained before considering easing. This is not caution; it’s a responsible attitude.

In other words, the expectation of a wave of rate cuts at the beginning of the year? It can be temporarily put aside. The "high interest rate offensive and defensive battle" will likely continue for a long time, expected to extend at least until mid-year. The future direction will, frankly, still depend on how inflation data performs.

For the crypto market, this means that short-term policy benefits may continue to be absent, but the long-term policy expectation framework is actually predictable. What do you think? Do you see the Fed’s overly conservative approach as a missed opportunity, or do you believe it’s a necessary price to pay?