2026-01-08 01:00:16

As the price of Bitcoin breaks through $100,000, an interesting phenomenon worth noting: the once-revered "four-year halving cycle" seems to be losing its effectiveness.

According to industry analysts, Bitcoin's mining output is now approaching exhaustion. In previous years, halving events would cause a significant impact on market supply, thereby influencing the bull and bear cycles. But now, that's different—the changes on the supply side have become almost negligible in their impact on the overall market.

What does this mean? The traditional deep bear markets may truly be becoming less frequent. When supply-side factors are no longer the dominant variables, market driving forces will come more from macroeconomic conditions, policy directions, institutional arrangements, and other more complex factors. The cyclical patterns in the crypto world are rewriting themselves, which may require a rethinking of subsequent investment strategies.

BTC-2,38%

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NotAFinancialAdvice

· 01-10 21:09

Has the halving failed? It seems like the rules of the crypto world are being rewritten every year, it's so surreal.

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FlashLoanPrince

· 01-08 01:30

Oh no, I sensed that the halving would fail a long time ago. This time, with BTC breaking through 100,000, there's no suspense left; it feels a bit less exciting.

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WhaleShadow

· 01-08 01:30

Halving cycle invalid? Fine, but can the macro factors really be trusted... --- Basically, retail investors are holding fewer and fewer chips. --- So now it's just about reading the Fed and the whales' moods? I'm speechless. --- The four-year cycle is dead, so does that mean all my previous strategies are useless? --- The exhaustion of output has been known for a long time; the question is whether institutions still want to keep pouring money in. --- Fewer deep bear markets sound good, but why do I feel the volatility will be even more terrifying... --- Finally someone said it, that old cliché needs to be brainwashed out.

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SchrödingersNode

· 01-08 01:29

Four-year cycle invalid? Haha, I saw it coming a long time ago. How can the market be sustained by halving when mining is exhausted? Macro and policy are the real bosses now, just like the stock market. Are bear markets really decreasing? I feel like the risks are still pretty high... Now it depends on the Federal Reserve's mood, the crypto world is becoming more and more like traditional finance. Halving is no longer the golden key, which means we've really grown up.

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RugResistant

· 01-08 01:05

Halving cycle invalidated? Now this is interesting, the old tricks are no longer popular. Really? Then we need to relearn economics. If supply is no longer the main factor, then who has the say? Institutional entry rewrites the game rules, making it even harder for retail investors. Fewer bear markets sound good, but it also means paying attention to more dimensions.

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BearHugger

· 01-08 01:02

Halving cycle invalid? Now this is interesting, I need to re-read the question. Speaking of institutional entry indeed changing the game rules, it's no longer just the miners calling the shots. Breaking through 100,000, that previous theory really needs to be thrown out.

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