2026-01-07 15:25:13

I don't want to boast about how amazing I am. Honestly, I just watch the charts until my eyes hurt and memorize the data to the point of knowing it by heart. Today, I want to review some recent trades—purely to record how my thinking has evolved, not as investment advice.

**Case 1: AIA from $20 down to $8**

When AIA surged to $20, the whole market was shouting "AI sector is bullish." But on-chain data told a different story—large addresses kept buying between $20 and $22, while exchange reserves of the token started to spike. This conflicting signal was very obvious. Basically, someone was pushing the price up to sell into it.

I shorted at $20, with a stop-loss at $22.5. In just two days, AIA crashed to $8. This move netted me $280,000 USD. The core logic is simple: don’t listen to slogans, keep your eyes fixed on the real flow of funds on the chain.

**Case 2: ZEC’s panic rebound**

When ZEC was hammered down to $500, the market was in despair. But I saw that open interest (OI) in futures contracts increased by 40% overnight, indicating big players were secretly positioning. With this signal, I dared to build a position. I entered at $500 with a stop-loss at $480.

The next day, news broke that European institutions entered the market, and ZEC shot up to $648. We took profits in stages, earning $460,000 USD. What I learned from this is: during panic, it’s crucial to watch derivatives data. Those frightening drops are often opportunities created by the manipulators.

**Case 3: FIL bottom formation**

This is a more complex story. FIL had been declining steadily, but I saw two signals happening simultaneously:

First, the storage order volume increased by 300% within a week, indicating real demand for storage services was returning.

Second, exchange reserves of FIL kept decreasing—meaning tokens were flowing onto the chain rather than waiting to be sold on exchanges.

With these two signals combined, I judged that the bottom was near. I built a position, waited, and then a rebound came. This move ultimately earned me $3.12 million USD.

**Summary:**

Three trades, three different logic sets, but the core methodology remains the same—trust the data, not emotions. On-chain data, derivatives data, exchange flow data—all objectively record what’s really happening in the market. Learning to read these data points allows you to find opportunities when people are most panicked and to exit early when everyone is overly bullish.

AIA1,56%

ZEC-11,14%

FIL0,4%

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DeFiVeteran

· 01-09 17:21

My eyes hurt, I totally understand, staring at the charts until my daily routine is completely disrupted. --- On-chain data is the real truth; everything else is just stories. --- That wave of AIA was indeed incredible. The signals of large holders offloading are much more honest than K-line charts. --- I’ve fallen into the trap of panic rebounds before. Now I’ve learned to be smart and look at OI first. --- The case of FIL is quite interesting. Combining ecosystem data with exchange flow can indeed reveal clues. --- Honestly, compared to listening to stories, I trust more what on-chain addresses are doing. --- 2.8 million USDT in two days? The key is, do you really dare to go against the crowd when everyone is shouting bullish? --- This methodology of data-based reasoning is worth copying; it’s more reliable than 90% of technical analysis. --- Have you ever thought about comparing complete on-chain screenshots of these three waves and sharing them? --- Derivatives data is indeed easy to overlook. Next time there’s a sharp drop, I’ll also keep an eye on OI changes.

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NotSatoshi

· 01-07 15:50

Really, I can totally relate to the pain of watching the charts all day. Can you memorize the data just by staring at the charts? Bro, that's not something an ordinary retail investor can do. This set of on-chain data indeed feels much more reliable than just listening to various calls. But that wave of AIA crashing to eight dollars so quickly was a bit scary at the time, right? ZEC's story is even more incredible. During panic, don't run away; instead, look at the OI increase. That’s a good approach. Honestly, I might not be able to identify the bottom of FIL, but the signal of a 300% increase in storage orders is indeed strong. Just want to ask, how do you judge the authenticity of this data? Could on-chain data also be manipulated?

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LiquidatorFlash

· 01-07 15:49

Staring at the screen until my eyes hurt is no exaggeration; the moment of liquidation risk truly tests one's mental resilience. --- I was also watching the OI increase by 40% that night, but didn't dare to follow... Looking back now, it was still a lack of strong risk control awareness. --- On-chain reserve decline is indeed a bottom signal, but be cautious of sudden contract liquidation events. --- The AIA move was purely large investors testing the collateralization ratio threshold; those who follow should be especially careful with leverage ratios. --- During panic moments, look at derivatives data... This methodology is sound, but the rollercoaster of psychology can be a bit intense.

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Ser_Liquidated

· 01-07 15:45

Watching the market until my eyes hurt, I totally get it. But data can lie, do you believe it? On-chain flows definitely don't deceive, but big players also know this trick. Can reverse operations prevent losses? That wave of FIL was somewhat lucky; an increase in order volume doesn't necessarily mean you can withstand a sell-off. AIA shorted down to 280,000 U, which is indeed aggressive, but in such a reverse market trend, a retracement is not easy to reproduce.

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FlyingLeek

· 01-07 15:39

This guy is right, the key is to have the patience to keep an eye on it. Understanding on-chain flow can indeed help avoid pitfalls. I was previously caught because I didn't pay close attention to OI. I've tried the same logic before, but there's just too much data to look at, it gets overwhelming. Honestly, I don't trust what others say, I only trust the reserve data from the exchange. Making so much profit shows one thing: having a steady mindset. I'm really curious about how you're currently managing your positions. There are too many traps; just watching the data sometimes also depends on luck. This review is very genuine, without any bragging tone. The key is that it teaches you how not to panic and mess up during stressful times, and that's worth learning.

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TestnetScholar

· 01-07 15:29

Really, 280,000 directly acquired. How come I can't see it? --- On-chain data is truly impressive, much more reliable than listening to big V's calls. --- I understand the obsession with monitoring the market until your eyes hurt, but few people can really stick to doing it this way. --- That wave of ZEC rebounding from 500 to 648, I was still hesitating whether to buy in at that time, and as a result, I missed out. --- So the key is to be patient and wait for that signal to appear; you can't rush it. --- I never paid attention to the detail that FIL storage orders increased by 300% before. --- By the way, how do you quickly identify which data signals are truly valuable? How much do you have to look at every day? --- Tracking the flow of coins on the chain is indeed a strong signal; I’ve learned that. --- 280,000, 460,000, 3,120,000—how much does that add up to? It’s a bit tempting. --- The hard part is staying clear-headed during panic; most people would have already cut their losses by then.

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