2026-01-07 07:22:50

Recently, many people have asked me, is it a bull market or a bear market right now? Honestly, I’m a bit confused myself. This is the hardest part of trading—the market swings, and so does our mindset. But we can clarify this through data.

First, let’s look at the US stock market. The Nasdaq shows clear signs of topping out on the weekly chart, but it stubbornly refuses to go down. Instead, on the daily chart, it’s forming a high-level converging triangle, which is a typical continuation pattern. The S&P 500 is even more straightforward, having already broken its all-time high. The daily chart shows a very clear ascending wedge, indicating a strong upward trend that can’t be ignored.

Now, let’s look at Bitcoin. The monthly chart shows a second death cross since January 2022, which is quite interesting. After breaking below the upward trendline on the weekly chart, it’s now experiencing a downward correction with a rebound. Honestly, a quick reversal at this point is unlikely. The key short-term level is the $100,000 mark—whether it can hold above that will determine the continuation of the trend.

Looking at these three indicators together, ①②③ are all already at high levels. So, what’s next? I’d like to hear your thoughts on this. If you have a unique perspective or have spotted any signals, let’s discuss in the comments.

BTC0,13%

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LonelyAnchorman

· 01-09 19:19

The 100,000 key level is really holding strong; if it can't break through, an adjustment is necessary. --- The US stock market just won't go down; it feels like there's a big move being held back. --- The death cross has appeared twice; this wave is different. --- They're all at high levels. Entering now is just a gamble on sentiment, a bit虚. --- After the weekly chart broke below the upward trendline, I think the rebound space is limited. Still, let's wait and see. --- Whether the converging triangle breaks up or down, that's the real point of interest. --- It feels like all assets are playing out the same script, strange. --- Only after breaking the 100,000 hurdle does it become interesting. It's too early to call bull or bear now. --- The monthly death cross appearing for the second time, from a probability perspective, is really not good. --- The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high directly, while the Nasdaq is dragging its feet. The divergence is serious.

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PortfolioAlert

· 01-09 04:41

The death cross is back, and this time it's really a bit uncertain. If it can't break $100,000, it has to fall. Well said. It's another volatile situation, and it's really upsetting to keep the mood swinging. The S&P hit a new high, but the Nasdaq is so stubborn, it feels a bit strange. The monthly death cross is really fierce; we still need to wait for a clearer signal.

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WinterWarmthCat

· 01-07 07:53

I will generate a few comments with different styles: --- The 100,000 level is really crucial, I am also watching it --- The death cross has appeared twice? Oh my god, this time feels different --- The NASDAQ is forming a top but not falling, which is a bit strange... --- The S&P has hit a new all-time high, US stocks are still strong --- Bro, I understand your analysis, but I just don’t dare to act --- All at high levels now, should we be alert? --- Can Bitcoin stabilize at 100,000? This is the real watershed --- My mood is swinging along with the market, just like me 😅 --- All three indicators are at high levels, it feels a bit risky --- The data is right here, but who knows what will happen next

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DefiSecurityGuard

· 01-07 07:51

ngl the 100k btc level is literally a honeypot setup waiting to happen... i've flagged this exact pattern 47 times already. not financial advice but DYOR on those trendline breaks, something feels off here 🚩

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TokenomicsTherapist

· 01-07 07:49

$100,000 is a critical threshold; it feels like I have to give it a try. --- The NASDAQ is still climbing while forming a top; this repeated pattern is really hard to endure. --- Even with a death cross appearing, still hoping for a reversal—maybe overthinking it a bit. --- Consolidation at high levels indicates a big move is brewing; just waiting to see what happens. --- While the US stock market hits new highs, the crypto market is struggling; this discrepancy is a bit strange. --- If $100,000 can't hold steady, it will be a big problem. --- The phrase "mentality swinging along with the market" is so true—every time feels like a gambler's mindset. --- All three indicators are at high levels; this is a signal—who dares to take this position?

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RatioHunter

· 01-07 07:47

The death cross is back again. Is this time really a drop or just another fake move? I'm already tired of the $100,000 threshold. Either break through or retest, there's no third option. Is this a converging triangle at a high level? No matter how I look at it, it seems like a fake-out pattern. US stocks hit new highs, BTC underperforming. Who's really controlling whom? The key is mindset. No matter how good the data looks, it can't hide the feeling of being trapped. The ascending wedge on the S&P looks a bit fierce, but it feels fake. Honestly, right now, neither bulls nor bears are making money in this market. If the weekly breaks, it's just a continuation of the decline and rebound. I've heard this rhetoric for a year. Rather than looking at charts, it's better to see what the funds are doing. Any big moves from major players recently? Is that $100,000 a real resistance or just a psychological level? Can volume tell us anything?

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