2026-01-07 03:40:17

#数字资产动态追踪 $BTC $ETH $XRP

The Fed policy shift could become the biggest variable in 2026

Goldman Sachs' latest data rings alarm bells: signs of deterioration in the US employment situation are evident. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, the U-6 measure has jumped to 8.7%, wage growth remains weak, and the quit rate has declined—indicating a significant contraction in labor market demand. This scenario is likely to force the Federal Reserve to adopt more aggressive rate cuts next year, far exceeding current market expectations. Can gold revive from this? Or is it just a fleeting moment?

The disagreements revealed at the December meeting are worth noting. While a 25 basis point rate cut was ultimately decided, Board member Milani openly advocated for a 50 basis point cut, and two Fed chairs opposed further easing, with the dot plot hinting at only one more cut in 2026. However, economic realities are often more complex than forecasts—if recession risks accelerate, policy measures will inevitably be intensified.

More critically, leadership changes at the Federal Reserve remain unresolved. The choice of the new chair swings between Hasset and Waller, fueling market concerns over the Fed's independence. The policy direction has become an open question.

Interest rates are approaching neutral levels, but the economy remains under pressure. As hawkish voices fall silent and dovish sentiments grow, how will the risk-averse logic of gold and the dollar be reshaped? 2026 is destined to be turbulent.

BTC-0,57%

ETH-0,19%

XRP0,04%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

20 Likes

Reward
20
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

BrokenDAO

· 01-09 01:48

Another governance reshuffle... The independence of the Federal Reserve is essentially gone, and policy anchors are entirely dependent on the new chairperson's selection, which fundamentally is a problem with the incentive structure.

View OriginalReply0

MeltdownSurvivalist

· 01-08 15:13

With employment data so bad, the Federal Reserve is still dithering. When they are forced to cut interest rates aggressively, cryptocurrencies will surge again.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropAnxiety

· 01-07 04:08

The unemployment rate has risen again, and now the Federal Reserve has to act quickly. Next year, the rate cut might be larger than expected. Is the crypto rebound window opening?

View OriginalReply0

AirdropChaser

· 01-07 04:08

The Fed's recent moves are really outrageous. They initially promised 25bp, but now some are calling for 50bp. The pace is getting more and more chaotic. 2026 might very well be a major turning point.

View OriginalReply0

WenAirdrop

· 01-07 04:08

With such poor employment data, the Federal Reserve really needs to step up next year. Just a 25 basis point hike won't be enough. By the way, if they cut interest rates significantly, BTC will become very attractive.

View OriginalReply0

GreenCandleCollector

· 01-07 04:07

With the unemployment rate rising so much, the Federal Reserve has to cut interest rates significantly. Now the crypto circle has more drama. Gold and BTC are both gaining popularity.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidityLarry

· 01-07 04:06

The Fed folks really don't get it. They're still fighting over the 25 basis points decision. Just wait and see next year, they might directly loosen by 50... Is gold brother about to take off or continue to fall? Who can say for sure?

View OriginalReply0

DuckFluff

· 01-07 04:02

The Fed's recent moves are really playing with fire. They didn't dare to move even 25 basis points seriously. Next time, if it really crashes, it will have to jump by twenty or thirty basis points.

View OriginalReply0