2026-01-07 02:26:08

Do you remember the predictions that swept the internet a year ago? Trump's furious attacks on the Federal Reserve, the market’s crazy bets on rate cuts, the end-of-days theory with $36 trillion in US debt looming… The entire circle was waiting for a financial tsunami.

Looking back at the feverish expectations for 2025, which ones came true, and which were just smoke screens? It’s time for a reckoning.

**The Truth About the Rate Cut Game**

Remember when the market was betting on a 3-month rate cut probability? Nearly 90%. Everyone was shouting, "Liquidity feast is coming." But what happened? The Fed’s actual rate cut path in 2025 was completely different from expectations. Was it more hawkish or more dovish than anticipated? This decides how many guessed the beginning right but got the ending wrong. Numbers don’t lie—just look at your positions.

**$36 Trillion Debt, Has This Bomb Exploded?**

Warnings like "Debt interest exceeds military spending" and "Debt spiral will blow up" scared the entire circle at the time. A year later, has this powder keg been defused or has it burned even closer? Are overseas buyers still holding positions, or are they starting to sell? This isn’t just an economic topic—it directly affects the long-term valuation logic of all assets.

**Crypto Market: Soaring to the Sky or Being Completely Cut Down?**

Back then, Bitcoin hit over 93,000, and gold ETFs were being snapped up madly. If you held your positions from 2025 until now, are you waking up laughing or remaining silent? Those chasing high in the frenzy often end up as the main characters of the story. FOMO is the biggest enemy for retail investors.

**How to See Through These Tricks in 2026**

Stop guessing how the Federal Reserve will move next year. Just look at how it has behaved over the past year. History is the best mirror—carefully compare those feverish predictions with cold reality, and it will help you spot the next "story trap."

More importantly: when a grand narrative (like "inevitable rate cuts" ) becomes market consensus), it’s often the most dangerous moment. Most people believe in what they trust, but that’s usually the farthest from the truth.

Looking back at the big show at the start of 2025, do you think the market’s expectations were too naive, or was the Fed’s manipulation too cunning? In that wave of market action, did you get the meat, or did you become just another "story" in someone else’s narrative?

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IronHeadMiner

· 14m ago

90% probability that I really believed in that move, now half of my position is gone I was just saying that these people in the market are especially good at self-deception Where have all the prophets gone? Now they are all silent The Federal Reserve is very cunning, retail investors are just being cut off Those who shouted 93,000 are now gone I just don’t understand why everyone is still betting on rate cuts, there are so many lessons from history FOMO is really a poison, I’ve seen so many people get liquidated because of it There are too many predictions, too few truths, this is the crypto world It’s been a year, still the same tricks, just changing names to continue the harvest Seeing through the tricks is actually very simple, it’s just that people don’t want to admit they’ve been scammed

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WhaleSurfer

· 20h ago

90% probability events always end up as jokes, this is the crypto world. --- The King of Understanding shouts until he's blue in the face, but the Federal Reserve still does whatever it wants. We are just here to be cut. --- From betting on a 90% rate cut in March to now, how many people's positions have turned to paper? I'm just watching. --- Whether the 36 trillion explosion actually happened or not doesn't matter to me; the key is whether my BTC is still here. --- When everyone is shouting "liquidity feast," it means the feast is over. --- FOMO is more likely to cause a margin call than US bonds. --- The ones eating the meat are always a minority; most people are just tools in the story. --- No matter how clear the mirror of history is, it’s useless. Next time the market comes, people will still chase highs. --- Market consensus = the most dangerous moment. I remember this, but it might be of no use. --- I don't know if the Federal Reserve is cunning or not, but I know how mediocre I am.

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SigmaValidator

· 01-07 17:37

Ha, if you want to sound good, I just want to ask—why are those who hyped interest rate cuts now silent? --- 90% chance of a crash, this is the daily life of the crypto world. I'm already numb. --- FOMO is really the biggest harvesting tool. Back then, all my friends were chasing highs, now they are all silent. --- Consensus = contrarian operation. The Fed is playing it really well this time. Brothers, next time be smarter. --- That 36 trillion yuan argument has worn my ears out, and this is all? --- Looking at positions can tell everything. Some people probably can't even smile anymore. --- Is the market expectation naive or is the Federal Reserve cunning? That’s a brilliant question. I bet it’s the latter. --- The once apocalyptic theory is now just a joke, really. --- Those who bought in at 93,000 should reflect now, right? --- History is a mirror, no doubt, but most people look in the mirror and have already lost their pants.

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PretendingToReadDocs

· 01-07 02:56

90% of the time I hear that, I just laugh. Now the consensus is all about being full of leek farmers. --- I just want to know where those shouting for 9.3 are now. --- Really, the phrase "Consensus is the most dangerous" hits hard. --- Still haven't caught the meat, but at least didn't get cut to the bone. --- The prophecy of the懂王 back then now sounds like a joke. --- The metaphor of a mirror of history is good; but looking into the mirror, you're still likely to get cut. --- The Federal Reserve has been very cunning this year, operating completely in the opposite way. --- Holding positions all the way to now means winning the gamble, but that doesn't mean it will work the same next time.

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rekt_but_not_broke

· 01-07 02:54

90% chance of betting on a rate cut, but ended up getting beaten down by the Federal Reserve. This is the daily life of retail investors. FOMO just for a moment of excitement, risking everything and treating it as paper money. That's us. 36 trillion in debt, no one cares. Just buy first and worry later; if we die, it’s next year’s problem. Why did no one listen to me when BTC hit 93,000? Now everyone is starting to reflect on themselves. Consensus = the biggest trap. It’s too late to understand this logic. Looking at my positions makes me want to cry. Not a big problem, just keep adding. I really believed when Trump was ranting about the Federal Reserve. Now I don’t trust anything. The Federal Reserve is just a scammer, changing tricks every year. Will they come back next year? What does silence mean? I’m clearly on the edge of collapse, bouncing back and forth. The mirror of history still reflects my own greed. Nothing else.

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DegenApeSurfer

· 01-07 02:53

90% probability of rate cut dream, now it really is a joke. I was all in waiting back then. Trump's wild attacks, US debt default fears, crypto apocalypse theories... none of it actually happened, but my positions got wiped out. Bro who bought Bitcoin at 93,000, how are you doing now? Ultimately, it's greed. Once a consensus appears, you should run. The more people believe, the more dangerous it is. I'm used to being cut, now I only look at history repeating itself, I don't trust any narratives. The Fed's manipulation this time is indeed cunning. The market is just a casino, I've never won. To put it simply, 99% of predictions are just post-hoc rationalizations.

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SigmaBrain

· 01-07 02:52

90% probability haha, I just don't believe this set --- Looking at the position in the screenshot, I instantly broke my defense, can't smile anymore --- Is there really someone who believes that 36 trillion will explode? And then? --- The biggest enemy in the crypto world is your own greed, no doubt --- When Bitcoin was being hyped, I knew it was a trap --- Consensus is the most dangerous, this sentence hits the sore spot --- The Federal Reserve is incredibly cunning, retail investors are always one step behind --- Getting now, silent +1, I don't want to recall that period --- The theory of historical mirrors is good, but next time I guess we'll still fall into the trap --- The doomsday theory is so exaggerated, what about now? No sound anymore --- This 90% number, it's too far-fetched --- It's just the old trick of big players cutting leeks, the same every year --- Just by looking at your position, I know this phrase is spot on, too real

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PhantomMiner

· 01-07 02:31

90% of people bet on rate cuts, and in the end, they all got cut off. This is the truth of the market. Well said, FOMO is the biggest killer. I was also that foolish person chasing highs. The Fed's manipulator, how many retail investors' dreams have been ruined in a year. From 93,000 to now, I've been silent for a long time... The stronger the consensus, the faster it dies. This time, I finally see it clearly. History really is a mirror, but most people can't see themselves clearly. The 36 trillion debt issue, it seems it hasn't exploded yet, but it's burning closer and closer. Those who chased highs have all become the main characters of the story, including me, the fantasy miner. Is market expectation naive? No, the Federal Reserve is a hundred times more cunning than we think. The simplest way to see through the tricks is to lose money once.

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