XRP’S 33% REBOUND: CAN BULLS SMASH THE $2.41 "WALL" TO UNLOCK A 13% RALLY?

As the first week of 2026 progresses, XRP is staging one of its most impressive short-term recoveries in recent memory. After carving out a solid “triple bottom” support near $1.77, the asset has catapulted upward, gaining nearly 33% in less than a week. However, the celebration may be premature. XRP has now arrived at a formidable “cost-basis wall” at $2.41, where over 1.5 billion tokens were previously purchased. With on-chain data showing that long-term holders are finally sitting on significant profits, the market is bracing for a high-stakes showdown. Will buyers have enough exhaustion-defying strength to flip this resistance, or is a 14% “profit-taking pullback” inevitable? I. The $2.41 Supply Cluster: A 1.5 Billion Token Barrier The current price action is hovering at a critical technical and psychological juncture. According to cost-basis distribution heatmaps, the $2.39 to $2.41 zone represents a massive supply cluster. This area is home to 1.56 billion XRP tokens bought by holders who have been “underwater” for weeks. As the price revisits this level, many of these investors are likely to sell just to break even, creating a natural ceiling of selling pressure. For the bullish trajectory to continue, XRP needs a decisive daily close above $2.41. If successful, the overhead supply clears out, potentially opening a fast-track route to the next major target at $2.69 a further 13% upside from current levels. II. The HODLer Dilemma: Conviction vs. Profit-Taking On-chain data reveals a fascinating tug-of-war among XRP’s most loyal supporters. Since late December, long-term holders have increased their net accumulation by a staggering 420%, moving from 9 million to 47 million XRP added daily. However, this aggressive buying has recently slowed as the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric climbed into a “sensitive” zone. Historically, when NUPL hits these levels, XRP has experienced corrections of around 14% as holders decide to lock in their gains. The fact that accumulation has tapered off since January 4 suggests that even the “diamond hands” are becoming selective as the price approaches the $2.41 barrier. III. Momentum Indicators: The Looming “Golden Cross” Despite the rising profit pressure, the technical chart is flashing several bullish signals. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently racing toward a crossover with the 50-day EMA. If this “bullish crossover” is confirmed, it would provide the structural backing needed for a sustained trend reversal rather than a simple “dead cat bounce.” Furthermore, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has broken its descending trendline, indicating that fresh capital is indeed flowing back into the ecosystem. However, the OBV has recently flattened out near the $2.41 zone, mirroring the hesitation seen in the price action and suggesting that a final “push” of volume is required to secure the breakout. IV. Essential Financial Disclaimer This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Price predictions and technical targets, such as the 13% rally to $2.69, are speculative and based on current market conditions that can change without notice. XRP is a highly volatile digital asset, and trading near major supply clusters like $2.41 carries significant risk of rapid reversals. On-chain metrics like NUPL and OBV are interpretive tools and do not guarantee future performance. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before making any investment decisions.

Do you believe the bulls have the strength to smash through the 1.5 billion token wall at $2.41, or are you preparing for a pullback to $1.90?