The truth behind the mining machine shutdown wave: Why does Bitcoin always bottom out around Christmas?

The recent buzz in the industry about the shutdown of mining machines reports that at least 400,000 units have gone offline. Against this backdrop, Nano Labs founder Kong Jianping has put forward an interesting perspective: the bear market bottom of Bitcoin often occurs around Christmas, and this is not a coincidence but a reflection of market cycle patterns.

From $0.25 to $92,750: Bitcoin’s 14-Year Journey

Looking back at history, Bitcoin’s trading price in early 2010 was only $0.25, and now it has surpassed $90,000. This figure is hard to imagine—over 14 years, Bitcoin’s price has increased nearly 400,000 times. From the few cents during the bitcoin price 2010 era to the current rush by institutional investors, this growth itself is a legend.

Christmas Curse: The Gathering Place for Every Bear Market Bottom

Data shows that Bitcoin indeed exhibits a “Christmas anomaly”:

• Around Christmas 2014: bottom price of $319
• End of 2018: bottom dropped to $3,815
• Christmas 2022: lowest touched $16,831

Why is this happening? On one hand, liquidity tightens at year-end, and investors close positions for the winter; on the other hand, institutional year-end settlements require large-scale exits, which often happen before the holidays.

Will 2025 Repeat This Cycle?

Kong Jianping predicts that in 2025, the bottom may be around $88,000, with a correction from the high in 2024. This forecast reflects market expectations of cyclical adjustments. However, currently, BTC is hovering around $92,750, not far from the predicted level.

Signals Behind the Volatility

This annual cyclical fluctuation is precisely the growing pain of digital assets as an emerging store of value. Unlike traditional assets with stable prices, Bitcoin’s price changes are more intense and better reflect market expectations. The mass shutdown of mining machines just confirms this—when profit margins are squeezed, some participants choose to exit, which is part of the market’s self-regulation process.

Historical cycles tell us that each bear market bottom accumulates energy for the next bull run.