$RIVER has been plunging from 17.8, which doesn't seem like an unexpected fluctuation—the signs of market manipulation behind it are becoming increasingly obvious.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a top divergence combined with increased volume leading to a sharp decline. The 4-hour chart just broke the double top pattern and entered a waterfall mode. Each rebound on the 1-hour candlestick chart is seen as a shorting opportunity by the bears. The MACD has a death cross below the zero line, and the entire moving average system has long been showing a bearish alignment.
The signals from the capital side are even more direct—large investors' short positions have been steadily increasing, with active sell orders completely suppressing buy orders. The open interest is shrinking in tandem with the price decline. All these point to one fact: the main players should have already pulled out.
The decline of the stock controlled by the big players is never prolonged. The current price around 13 has become a clear window for shorting. According to this logic, the stop-loss should be set above 13.5, with the first target at the 12 level. If that level is broken, the previous low around 10 may no longer hold. Of course, everyone hopes to catch a bargain during a rebound, but if you miss the opportunity to position now, you'll only be able to watch the price drop like a waterfall.
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BTCRetirementFund
· 01-05 21:12
The main players have run away, there's no saving this wave, can't hold onto ten dollars.
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SatoshiHeir
· 01-03 21:09
It should be pointed out that although this technical analysis is sufficiently detailed, it makes a fundamental fallacy—rigidly applying the logic of pump-and-dump stocks to on-chain assets.
Obviously, RIVER's decline does indeed match the technical characteristics you described, but the problem is: on-chain data is the real truth. What does a shrinking position size indicate? It suggests panic selling, but that doesn't mean the main players are "about to withdraw"—quite the opposite, this is often a window where whales are accumulating.
Your stop-loss at 13.5 and target at 12 are based on traditional logic, which works well in centralized exchanges, but applying this in the Web3 ecosystem is somewhat naive. From the perspective of the white paper, the composition of market participants has completely changed.
The most painful part is that phrase "after missing the opportunity to deploy, you can only watch helplessly"—this is the real psychological trap.
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GateUser-e51e87c7
· 01-03 11:56
Another pump-and-dump scheme to trap retail investors, buddy, your套路 is really familiar.
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Cut from 17.8 to 13, next step is just waiting for me to buy the dip and then another drop.
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Waterfall? Sounds just like my account curve, always falling and falling.
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The main force should withdraw when they need to, and we should be cautious when we need to. Don't think about 12 or 10 anymore.
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I'm already tired of this technical analysis, still got trapped, so frustrating.
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Stop-loss at 13.5? I bet this price won't even hold, heading straight to the one-word limit.
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Picking up bargains? Haha, when I finally buy the dip, there will be another big waterfall. My luck is unmatched.
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向钱冲XCL
· 01-03 11:56
Empty to the floor to eat big meat
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WalletWhisperer
· 01-03 11:56
ngl the whale clustering on $RIVER is textbook... that divergence pattern screaming accumulation phase inversion, you know? behavioral indicators don't lie fr
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SerumSquirrel
· 01-03 11:54
My reply:
The main force has indeed pulled out, but I still bet that $13 will rebound... Those caught in the trap should have some hope, right?
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BearMarketNoodler
· 01-03 11:52
Another big show by the market makers, a plunge from 17.8 to 13, looks like a prearranged script.
Bearish divergence combined with a death cross, I've seen this combo too many times. It’s rarely effective when it actually works. Stop loss at 13.5, target at 12... quite accurate in prediction, but I worry that when the price actually drops, it might not follow the expected pattern.
However, I have to admit that the current capital flow signals are quite clear. Large investors are疯狂 selling, and that doesn’t lie. The problem is that most people entering the market to buy the dip will probably only be able to break even around the 10-dollar mark. Rebound? Let’s wait and see.
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MercilessHalal
· 01-03 11:42
Another manipulation stock getting harvested, 17.8, how many leek traders were cut?
Can we really bottom out at 13 yuan? Feels like more to be invested.
Signals of the main force fleeing are written all over the face, with a clear bearish arrangement.
A rebound is just an opportunity to short, tired of this routine.
Let's see if 10 yuan can hold, if it drops further, I'll need to liquidate everything.
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ParanoiaKing
· 01-03 11:37
It's yet again "the main force has withdrawn"... Listening to this argument, it's even more confident than the last bottom-fishing attempt.
Stuck at 13.5? I think these so-called "precise stop-loss" strategies always end up being the last words of the retail investors.
$RIVER has been plunging from 17.8, which doesn't seem like an unexpected fluctuation—the signs of market manipulation behind it are becoming increasingly obvious.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows a top divergence combined with increased volume leading to a sharp decline. The 4-hour chart just broke the double top pattern and entered a waterfall mode. Each rebound on the 1-hour candlestick chart is seen as a shorting opportunity by the bears. The MACD has a death cross below the zero line, and the entire moving average system has long been showing a bearish alignment.
The signals from the capital side are even more direct—large investors' short positions have been steadily increasing, with active sell orders completely suppressing buy orders. The open interest is shrinking in tandem with the price decline. All these point to one fact: the main players should have already pulled out.
The decline of the stock controlled by the big players is never prolonged. The current price around 13 has become a clear window for shorting. According to this logic, the stop-loss should be set above 13.5, with the first target at the 12 level. If that level is broken, the previous low around 10 may no longer hold. Of course, everyone hopes to catch a bargain during a rebound, but if you miss the opportunity to position now, you'll only be able to watch the price drop like a waterfall.