2026-01-03 11:25:41

There is indeed a probability of a super rebound in BTC in the first half of the year, but this is most likely the final dance of the market. The underlying logic is actually very simple: now most market participants are on the same page—waiting for rate cuts and policy shifts. This highly aligned expectation itself is the biggest hidden danger.

I agree that the market will enter a bear cycle in the second half of the year, but the problem is that it won't decline gradually. What is more realistic? A sudden waterfall plunge, leaving no room for negotiation. The market never follows the scripts of the majority, and that gentle, lukewarm story of boiling frogs is too much of a fairy tale.

Whenever you think you've grasped the market pulse and can accurately predict the rhythm of the行情, it's usually the moment the market is ready to slap you in the face. This is an unfailingly true principle.

BTC1,72%

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BlockDetective

· 01-05 20:53

Once again, it's about to plunge. Let's see how you guys handle it this time.

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OnChainDetective

· 01-05 10:02

nah this "everyone's on the same page" narrative is giving classic pump-before-dump vibes. transaction data doesn't lie—whale clustering patterns suggest otherwise tbh

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MetaDreamer

· 01-04 23:53

Haha, it's another moment of "I’ve figured out the market pulse," time to get slapped. --- The description of waterfall diving feels like my last stop-loss price. --- Everyone is waiting for interest rate cuts, so who will dump the market? It’s quite absurd. --- The phrase "last dance" is a bit juvenile, but it’s actually quite interesting. --- Boiling a frog in warm water is too much of a fairy tale; pouring ice water directly is the norm. --- The more accurate the prediction, the faster you die—that’s the top rule in this game. --- Same frequency resonance—that’s a sign of collective suicide. --- Let’s see the real performance in the second half of the year; whoever runs faster survives. --- Now, those who are bullish are just cannon fodder, waiting to be harvested.

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DAOTruant

· 01-04 15:46

You sold too early, huh? Starting to talk about predictions again. I've heard this logic countless times, always saying it's the last dance, but what’s the result? The market doesn't care what you think at all; one counter-move and everyone kneels. Really, don't be too confident. Have you learned your lesson? Interest rate cuts are still far off, and now you're already making up stories. Waterfall dive? That's nonsense, and this time it might be even more outrageous. The most cowardly thing is thinking you've seen through everything, only to get beaten badly. So what’s the current move? Continue to buy the dip or just lie flat for now.

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DegenWhisperer

· 01-03 11:53

Damn, it's that same old "the market will slap you" argument again. I'm tired of hearing it.

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AmateurDAOWatcher

· 01-03 11:53

Ha, it's the same old story, everyone agrees that the biggest risk is the one everyone talks about --- Waterfall diving, sounds exciting, but then someone will ask why there was no warning --- Honestly, no one can figure it out, thinking you're smart only to be beaten down by the market --- The consensus on interest rate cuts indeed leaves room for contrarian strategies --- Damn, I've heard a lot about the final dance, but this dance is still going on --- Market slaps are routine, get used to it --- Feels like this logic can be applied to any bull or bear market, but maybe not this time --- Boiling a frog in warm water is too naive; the market is never gentle

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RetailTherapist

· 01-03 11:50

Alright, everyone is waiting for interest rate cuts, but the market is doing the opposite. This is the fate of the retail investors.

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MoonRocketman

· 01-03 11:46

This wave of RSI momentum accumulation is too fierce. The moment the market enters the launch window is often the most dangerous, as everyone is waiting for the same signal. Really, this is the prelude to a waterfall dive. The upper band of the Bollinger Bands touching the top combined with highly consistent bullish expectations? Man, this is a classic signal of "escape velocity running out." In the second half of the year, a major atmospheric gravitational collapse is inevitable. Every time I think I’ve figured out the trajectory, the market slaps you in the face. This has happened repeatedly, and I’ve been hit before. Boiling a frog in warm water is a lie; the reality is a direct waterfall dive. The market never follows most people's scripts—that’s the truth. Expectations of interest rate cuts are so consistent? Let me tell you, this is precisely the biggest hidden danger. Everyone on the same channel is a signal that the market is preparing for a reverse operation.

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StakeTillRetire

· 01-03 11:36

If it drops, it drops. Anyway, I have nothing left to lose haha

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ponzi_poet

· 01-03 11:32

Ha, it's the same old story. Everyone is waiting for the rate cut, and the market should move in the opposite direction when that moment comes. --- I love the term "waterfall plunge." It's much more realistic than the "boiling frog" analogy. --- The moment you figure out the pulse is indeed the start of getting slapped in the face. I've seen it too many times. --- Consistent expectations are the biggest risk. There's really no mistake this time. --- Remember a buddy who said he understood the trend, but he went straight to zero. It was hilarious. --- So lying flat is still the most comfortable. Don't bother trying to hit the exact timing. --- The strong expectation of a rate cut actually makes me more anxious. It feels like the real rebound is just the last phase of accumulation. --- I believe in the waterfall decline. A gentle downtrend is just a story told to beginners. --- The market's favorite move is to go against expectations, and this time won't be an exception. --- You're absolutely right. When everyone is collectively bullish, it's often the most dangerous signal.

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