Interestingly, some people claim that the crypto market is a scam, but this rhetoric usually comes from investors who took losses during the 2022 bear market and missed out in 2023. As someone who has been involved in this market for over ten years, I want to share something practical today—the regularity of BTC bull and bear cycles.

The data is right in front of us. BTC cycles are as precise as a clock: the bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022 occurred at four-year intervals, with an error of no more than 3 months. Even more interesting is the duration of the bear markets themselves—410 days, 363 days, 377 days, averaging about 383 days, roughly 1 year and 2 months. This is no coincidence; it reflects the psychological cycles of market participants and the objective laws of capital flow.

By working backwards according to this rhythm, if we can pinpoint the top of this bull run, we can relatively accurately estimate the bottom of the next cycle. Based on current signals, October 7, 2025, is very likely to be the peak of this bull market. Why do I say that?

One perspective is global liquidity. In 2025, the Federal Reserve is likely to conclude its rate hike cycle, which means the final stage of loose liquidity often coincides with the last surge of risk assets. Another perspective comes from on-chain data—the current holdings of whales are approaching the levels seen at the top of the 2021 bull market. This is a crucial signal: large funds are quietly preparing to exit.

By adding 364 days to October 7, 2025, we can define the window for the next cycle’s bottom. Of course, the market will always have surprises, but the reference value of historical cycles cannot be ignored.