#美联储降息 Will the US economy change in 2026? How will the "tariffs + tax rebates" double punch play out?

$DOGE $PEPE $SUI

Recently, big moves have been rumored in the US economic policy circle—2026 may see a "180-degree turn," with the core strategies being two words: loosening + liquidity infusion. What does that sound like? Simply put, tariffs might be eased, and large-scale tax rebates will flood into the market. This combo punch will have implications for the crypto space to consider.

**Tariffs Easing**

What about the high inflation pressure? Instead of raising taxes further, the approach is being adjusted. Analysts point out that tariffs are evolving from a "hard tool" to a "negotiation chip"—in other words, flexible use to ease global trade tensions. If there are significant adjustments, it will be a positive signal for supply chains and import prices.

**Tax Rebates Are Coming, Everyone Gets a Share**

This is more direct. Due to issues with retroactive legislation, over 100 million Americans could receive an average of $3,278 in tax rebates this year. What does that mean? Industry insiders compare it to stimulus checks during the pandemic—back then, money directly boosted consumption, sparking a big wave. The scale this time is similar, and the implications are obvious.

**What Will Happen to the Cryptocurrency Market?**

In the short term, economic stimulus + increased consumer spending likely means the Fed won't cut interest rates quickly. With ample liquidity, some funds will flow into risk assets—which is a positive for the crypto market. But there’s a catch: if tax rebates push inflation higher, the dollar could become more volatile, and this uncertainty presents both opportunities and challenges for digital assets.

**Two Points Worth Considering**

1. The combination of fiscal easing + tight monetary policy—will it be a tailwind or headwind for Bitcoin? When liquidity is abundant, risk assets usually benefit, but the suppressive effects of high interest rates shouldn’t be underestimated.

2. If inflation truly arrives, will more people start using Bitcoin as an "inflation hedge"? Historically, every inflation cycle has seen some doing just that.

This is indeed a potent medicine, but the side effects are hidden inside—risks of high inflation and high debt have already been planted. The global markets will be walking this "policy tightrope" in the coming period, and every step must be carefully calculated.