#十月加密ETF关键对决 【Economic Drama Begins】2026 US Policy Trends, Crypto Market May Face Turning Point

Wall Street analysis firms recently issued a striking judgment: next year, US economic policies may undergo a "big reversal"—combining tariffs and fiscal spending to stimulate economic growth across the board. What does this mean for global markets? And what impact could it have on crypto assets?

Here's a breakdown of two key actions:

**Action One: Tariffs Shift from "Big Weapon" to "Bargaining Chip"**
The Fed faces inflation challenges, and some tax hike plans have been postponed. Institutional views suggest tariffs may gradually shift from absolute trade barriers to negotiation tools. Once large-scale adjustments occur, global trade tensions could ease, which for crypto markets relying on cross-border flows, might mean increased risk appetite.

**Action Two: Trillion-Dollar Tax Refunds Incoming**
Due to the bill's retroactive clauses, over 100 million American households are expected to receive an average of $3,278 in tax refunds this year. JPMorgan's statement is straightforward—this is akin to another round of pandemic stimulus checks. The immediate consequence is injecting fresh liquidity into consumer spending, which could push up inflation expectations.

**The Logic Chain of Market Turning Points:**

In the short term, large-scale fiscal stimulus will directly boost US consumption and nominal GDP growth, potentially increasing risk appetite in capital markets. But it could also lead the Fed to maintain a tight monetary stance, delaying rate cuts. This creates an interesting scenario—liquidity is increasing, but interest rates may not fall.

If ample liquidity flows into risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), combined with potential volatility in the dollar's movement, the crypto market will face a complex tug-of-war. In the long run, high inflation risks and high debt pressures are lurking beneath the surface—hidden dangers under current policies.

**Two Key Questions Worth Considering:**

First, does the combination of "money printing + possible hawkish monetary policy" serve as a push or a drag for digital assets? Usually, ample liquidity benefits risk assets, but if interest rates stay high, increasing investor costs, the situation could reverse.

Second, if the tax refunds truly boost inflation, will more institutions and individuals start viewing Bitcoin as an inflation hedge? This could trigger a new round of "safe-haven buying."

The key lies in observing the interaction between policy implementation pace and actual inflation data—that will be the fulcrum determining the future of cryptocurrencies.