The ceiling for old coin shanzhai pump-and-dump schemes is much higher than people imagine. Looking back at the mid-September rally, the altcoin market did experience a good increase, but by the end of September, it faced a correction. Interestingly, during the decline, trading volume actually increased, indicating that many retail investors were entering the market at the bottom to go long. At that time, the outlook for the altcoin season was still quite optimistic. It wasn't until mid-October that the market suddenly changed direction, and the enthusiasm for the altcoin season dissipated.

In the past two days, there are signs of a bottoming rebound in altcoins. The market has been suppressed for too long, and as soon as there is a slight positive signal, retail investors can't sit still and want to enter. But can this rebound last? The problem is that once the driving force weakens, the rally will quickly fade. The market needs continuous capital support to sustain upward momentum.

DOGE is a typical example. Above the 0.14 level, there is a large amount of trapped orders, and who will take the buy-in is a big question. After breaking through 0.14, every one-cent increase faces even stronger selling pressure. In a genuine upward cycle, institutional funds can absorb these chips, and retail follow-through can also become a boost. But the current market environment clearly does not support this kind of trend.

If we want the old coin shanzhai to make a comeback, we need BTC to break through $100,000 and ETH to return above $3800. Until then, it might still be a while before the short-term losses are recovered.