Looking at ETH's recent market performance, it's simply a battleground between the bulls and bears. I reviewed the latest on-chain smart money data and was directly stunned—there are actually 747 bearish whales, more than four times the number of bullish ones! Even more astonishing, the price has risen to $3,128, and these bearish positions are already showing unrealized losses of over $120 million, yet not a single one has closed their position. They've effectively turned this loss into a "high-cost chip wall" pressing down on the market.

Let's first clarify what "smart money data" means—basically, it refers to the holdings of large institutions and major players with significant capital. The actions of these players often reflect the true market sentiment more reliably than those who talk a lot but do little. The core contradiction in this set of data is very clear: the price is rising, yet the bears stubbornly refuse to admit defeat.

According to conventional thinking, with the price breaking down and unrealized losses so large, the bears should have cut losses and exited long ago. But they refuse to do so. This isn't reckless stubbornness; there's logic behind it. First, players big enough to be called whales typically have capital in the tens of billions or more. An unrealized loss of $120 million might be just a drop in the bucket for them. This means they have enough "ammunition" to hold their positions and are not at risk of a liquidity crisis. Second, holders of this level usually are not short-term traders; their strategic horizon is measured in months or even quarters, so short-term price fluctuations have little impact on their decisions. More importantly, this "willingness to hold despite unrealized losses" itself sends a signal to the market—that they are confident in the subsequent trend.